Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries
<i>Aulonemia queko</i> Goudot (Poaceae, Bambusoideae) is a species of great cultural importance that has been used as a non-timber forest product in Andean forests for centuries. Despite inhabiting montane forests vulnerable to deforestation, its distribution has not been thoroughly asse...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Diversity |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/3/167 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850205416277934080 |
|---|---|
| author | Hugo Cedillo Luis G. García-Montero Omar Cabrera Mélida Rocano Andrés Arciniegas Oswaldo Jadán |
| author_facet | Hugo Cedillo Luis G. García-Montero Omar Cabrera Mélida Rocano Andrés Arciniegas Oswaldo Jadán |
| author_sort | Hugo Cedillo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <i>Aulonemia queko</i> Goudot (Poaceae, Bambusoideae) is a species of great cultural importance that has been used as a non-timber forest product in Andean forests for centuries. Despite inhabiting montane forests vulnerable to deforestation, its distribution has not been thoroughly assessed for conservation. This study analyzes its potential distribution at the regional scale (the four countries where it is distributed) and locally (in greater detail within Ecuador), using presence records and climatic and land-use data. Maxent was identified as the best algorithm, achieving high values of AUC, TSS, sensitivity, and specificity. At a regional level, <i>A. queko</i> is estimated to occupy approximately 264,540 km<sup>2</sup>, mostly in Peru, with small areas in Bolivia. In Ecuador, the historical scenario showed the widest distribution, while the current–near-future scenario (20–40–SSP126) presented a more stable model. Temperature and rainfall represented critical factors in defining suitable habitats, as <i>A. queko</i> is highly sensitive to seasonal moisture availability. Land-use changes have reduced potential habitats by more than 35%, underscoring an intensified threat of habitat loss in these biodiversity-rich regions. However, projected climate changes pose an even greater impact, significantly reducing potential distribution. Our findings highlight the compelling effects of both climate-change-driven and human-driven land-use change on the future persistence of <i>A. queko</i> and emphasize the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to protect its core habitats. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ca2d2777eb28403a9ff01bfe5d92bd6d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diversity |
| spelling | doaj-art-ca2d2777eb28403a9ff01bfe5d92bd6d2025-08-20T02:11:05ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182025-02-0117316710.3390/d17030167Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean CountriesHugo Cedillo0Luis G. García-Montero1Omar Cabrera2Mélida Rocano3Andrés Arciniegas4Oswaldo Jadán5Centro para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad y el Desarrollo Sostenible (CBDS), E.T.S.I. Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28040 Madrid, SpainCentro para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad y el Desarrollo Sostenible (CBDS), E.T.S.I. Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartment of Biological Sciences, Private Technical University of Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, EcuadorGrupo de Ecología Forestal, Agroecosistemas y Silvopasturas en Sistemas Ganaderos, Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010114, EcuadorGrupo de Ecología Forestal, Agroecosistemas y Silvopasturas en Sistemas Ganaderos, Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010114, EcuadorGrupo de Ecología Forestal, Agroecosistemas y Silvopasturas en Sistemas Ganaderos, Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad de Cuenca, Cuenca 010114, Ecuador<i>Aulonemia queko</i> Goudot (Poaceae, Bambusoideae) is a species of great cultural importance that has been used as a non-timber forest product in Andean forests for centuries. Despite inhabiting montane forests vulnerable to deforestation, its distribution has not been thoroughly assessed for conservation. This study analyzes its potential distribution at the regional scale (the four countries where it is distributed) and locally (in greater detail within Ecuador), using presence records and climatic and land-use data. Maxent was identified as the best algorithm, achieving high values of AUC, TSS, sensitivity, and specificity. At a regional level, <i>A. queko</i> is estimated to occupy approximately 264,540 km<sup>2</sup>, mostly in Peru, with small areas in Bolivia. In Ecuador, the historical scenario showed the widest distribution, while the current–near-future scenario (20–40–SSP126) presented a more stable model. Temperature and rainfall represented critical factors in defining suitable habitats, as <i>A. queko</i> is highly sensitive to seasonal moisture availability. Land-use changes have reduced potential habitats by more than 35%, underscoring an intensified threat of habitat loss in these biodiversity-rich regions. However, projected climate changes pose an even greater impact, significantly reducing potential distribution. Our findings highlight the compelling effects of both climate-change-driven and human-driven land-use change on the future persistence of <i>A. queko</i> and emphasize the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies to protect its core habitats.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/3/167<i>Aulonemia queko</i>azuaymolleturopotential distributionprecipitationtemperature |
| spellingShingle | Hugo Cedillo Luis G. García-Montero Omar Cabrera Mélida Rocano Andrés Arciniegas Oswaldo Jadán Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries Diversity <i>Aulonemia queko</i> azuay molleturo potential distribution precipitation temperature |
| title | Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries |
| title_full | Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries |
| title_short | Modeling the Potential Distribution of <i>Aulonemia queko</i>: Historical, Current, and Future Scenarios in Ecuador and Other Andean Countries |
| title_sort | modeling the potential distribution of i aulonemia queko i historical current and future scenarios in ecuador and other andean countries |
| topic | <i>Aulonemia queko</i> azuay molleturo potential distribution precipitation temperature |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/3/167 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hugocedillo modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries AT luisggarciamontero modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries AT omarcabrera modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries AT melidarocano modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries AT andresarciniegas modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries AT oswaldojadan modelingthepotentialdistributionofiaulonemiaquekoihistoricalcurrentandfuturescenariosinecuadorandotherandeancountries |