Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators that reflects the evolution and resilience of national economies. The importance of this macroeconomic indicator is growing in the current economic context, context in which international studies start to emphasize the importanc...

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Main Authors: Mihai Păunică, Alexandru Manole, Cătălina Motofei, Gabriela-Lidia Tănase
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Editura ASE 2021-11-01
Series:Amfiteatru Economic
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_3048.pdf
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author Mihai Păunică
Alexandru Manole
Cătălina Motofei
Gabriela-Lidia Tănase
author_facet Mihai Păunică
Alexandru Manole
Cătălina Motofei
Gabriela-Lidia Tănase
author_sort Mihai Păunică
collection DOAJ
description Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators that reflects the evolution and resilience of national economies. The importance of this macroeconomic indicator is growing in the current economic context, context in which international studies start to emphasize the importance of resilience and sustainable development and in which the GDP can be seen either as an obstacle to sustainability, or a tool to protect the environment and achieve the resilience and sustainability goals. Consequently, the authors consider that understanding the formation of the GDP and the elements that exert an influence on it, remains of vital importance for the economy of a country or group of countries. The objective of the paper is to see if some of the indicators that are used to determine the GDP, respectively final consumption expenditure of general government, final consumption expenditure of households, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, external balance – goods, external balance – services, wages and salaries and, respectively, employers’ social contributions, together with two indicators of final energy consumption, are Granger causing the GDP. The results obtained will indicate whether GDP can be predicted at a highly accurate level, by using not only the previous values of the GDP, but also the previous values of determining variables, and will also contribute to highlight those elements that have such an impact on the GDP, in order to better estimate its evolution and to have the possibility to influence its future values.
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publishDate 2021-11-01
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spelling doaj-art-ca248f891fc047528ff8014305ac3cbb2025-08-20T03:23:59ZengEditura ASEAmfiteatru Economic1582-91462247-91042021-11-0123Special Issue No. 1591493310.24818/EA/2021/S15/914Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic ProductMihai Păunică0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2851-6677Alexandru Manole1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2813-6025Cătălina Motofei2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6828-9144Gabriela-Lidia Tănase3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5713-8022Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania “ARTIFEX” University of Bucharest, RomaniaBucharest University of Economic Studies, RomaniaBucharest University of Economic Studies, RomaniaGross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators that reflects the evolution and resilience of national economies. The importance of this macroeconomic indicator is growing in the current economic context, context in which international studies start to emphasize the importance of resilience and sustainable development and in which the GDP can be seen either as an obstacle to sustainability, or a tool to protect the environment and achieve the resilience and sustainability goals. Consequently, the authors consider that understanding the formation of the GDP and the elements that exert an influence on it, remains of vital importance for the economy of a country or group of countries. The objective of the paper is to see if some of the indicators that are used to determine the GDP, respectively final consumption expenditure of general government, final consumption expenditure of households, gross fixed capital formation, changes in inventories, external balance – goods, external balance – services, wages and salaries and, respectively, employers’ social contributions, together with two indicators of final energy consumption, are Granger causing the GDP. The results obtained will indicate whether GDP can be predicted at a highly accurate level, by using not only the previous values of the GDP, but also the previous values of determining variables, and will also contribute to highlight those elements that have such an impact on the GDP, in order to better estimate its evolution and to have the possibility to influence its future values.https://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_3048.pdfgross domestic productgranger causalityfinal consumptioncapital formationchanges in inventoriessalariesexternal balance
spellingShingle Mihai Păunică
Alexandru Manole
Cătălina Motofei
Gabriela-Lidia Tănase
Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
Amfiteatru Economic
gross domestic product
granger causality
final consumption
capital formation
changes in inventories
salaries
external balance
title Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
title_full Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
title_fullStr Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
title_full_unstemmed Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
title_short Resilience of the European Union Economies. An Analysis of the Granger Causality at the Level of the Gross Domestic Product
title_sort resilience of the european union economies an analysis of the granger causality at the level of the gross domestic product
topic gross domestic product
granger causality
final consumption
capital formation
changes in inventories
salaries
external balance
url https://www.amfiteatrueconomic.ro/temp/Article_3048.pdf
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AT catalinamotofei resilienceoftheeuropeanunioneconomiesananalysisofthegrangercausalityatthelevelofthegrossdomesticproduct
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