Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio
The sub-instability refers to a stress state that exists between the maximum stress the rock can withstand and its final failure. This stress state should be an indicator of impending large earthquakes, as it occurs in the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We apply the Load/Unload Response Ratio...
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2380911 |
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| author | Huaizhong Yu Donghui Jia Chieh-Hung Chen Yue Liu Haitao Wang Jie Liu Rui Yan Binbin Zhao Jianming Liu Yuchuan Ma Guihong Han Wen Yang Zhengyi Yuan Zeping Li |
| author_facet | Huaizhong Yu Donghui Jia Chieh-Hung Chen Yue Liu Haitao Wang Jie Liu Rui Yan Binbin Zhao Jianming Liu Yuchuan Ma Guihong Han Wen Yang Zhengyi Yuan Zeping Li |
| author_sort | Huaizhong Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The sub-instability refers to a stress state that exists between the maximum stress the rock can withstand and its final failure. This stress state should be an indicator of impending large earthquakes, as it occurs in the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We apply the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method to explore sub-instability in the source media before large earthquakes. The earthquake-related observation data such as the groundwater, crustal deformation, electromagnetism and so on were adopted as data input. The load and unload phases at each observation station are discriminated by the change of Coulomb failure stress caused by earth tides along the tectonically optimal sliding direction. Retrospective studies of this approach on the 2020 Mw6.0 Jiashi, Xinjiang, 2022 Mw6.6 Menyuan, Qinghai, and Mw6.6 Luding, Sichuan earthquakes show that the LURR time series derived from the observation stations near the epicenter exceed 2 standard deviations of the mean within several days to years before the mainshocks. Additionally, as the time of mainshock approaches, the distance between the stations detecting LURR anomaly and epicenter decreases. The LURR anomalies indicate the presence of sub-instability prior to a large earthquake, and their spatio-temporal evolution may suggest the weakening processes in the source media. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ca0238fe387b4192a57d45c638c4269b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1947-5705 1947-5713 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk |
| spelling | doaj-art-ca0238fe387b4192a57d45c638c4269b2024-12-12T18:11:18ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk1947-57051947-57132024-12-0115110.1080/19475705.2024.2380911Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratioHuaizhong Yu0Donghui Jia1Chieh-Hung Chen2Yue Liu3Haitao Wang4Jie Liu5Rui Yan6Binbin Zhao7Jianming Liu8Yuchuan Ma9Guihong Han10Wen Yang11Zhengyi Yuan12Zeping Li13Xinjiang Pamir Intracontinental Subduction National Field Observation and Research Station, Urumqi, ChinaEarthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, ChinaChengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaEarthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, ChinaEarthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaEarthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaChina Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing, ChinaThe sub-instability refers to a stress state that exists between the maximum stress the rock can withstand and its final failure. This stress state should be an indicator of impending large earthquakes, as it occurs in the final stage of earthquake nucleation. We apply the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method to explore sub-instability in the source media before large earthquakes. The earthquake-related observation data such as the groundwater, crustal deformation, electromagnetism and so on were adopted as data input. The load and unload phases at each observation station are discriminated by the change of Coulomb failure stress caused by earth tides along the tectonically optimal sliding direction. Retrospective studies of this approach on the 2020 Mw6.0 Jiashi, Xinjiang, 2022 Mw6.6 Menyuan, Qinghai, and Mw6.6 Luding, Sichuan earthquakes show that the LURR time series derived from the observation stations near the epicenter exceed 2 standard deviations of the mean within several days to years before the mainshocks. Additionally, as the time of mainshock approaches, the distance between the stations detecting LURR anomaly and epicenter decreases. The LURR anomalies indicate the presence of sub-instability prior to a large earthquake, and their spatio-temporal evolution may suggest the weakening processes in the source media.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2380911Sub-instabilityearthquake nucleationload/unload response ratioearthquake-related observationsstrain release point |
| spellingShingle | Huaizhong Yu Donghui Jia Chieh-Hung Chen Yue Liu Haitao Wang Jie Liu Rui Yan Binbin Zhao Jianming Liu Yuchuan Ma Guihong Han Wen Yang Zhengyi Yuan Zeping Li Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk Sub-instability earthquake nucleation load/unload response ratio earthquake-related observations strain release point |
| title | Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio |
| title_full | Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio |
| title_fullStr | Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio |
| title_full_unstemmed | Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio |
| title_short | Detecting sub-instability before three Mw > 6.0 earthquakes on Chinese mainland in 2020–2022 with load/unload response ratio |
| title_sort | detecting sub instability before three mw 6 0 earthquakes on chinese mainland in 2020 2022 with load unload response ratio |
| topic | Sub-instability earthquake nucleation load/unload response ratio earthquake-related observations strain release point |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/19475705.2024.2380911 |
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