Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors

In recent years, global weather changes have underscored the importance of wildfire detection, particularly through Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS)-based smoke detection using Deep Learning (DL) approaches. Among these, object detection algorithms like You Only Look Once version 7 (YOLOv7) have gaine...

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Main Authors: Xiyuan Liu, Lingxiao Wang, Jiahao Li, Khan Raqib Mahmud, Shuo Pang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/7/1046
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author Xiyuan Liu
Lingxiao Wang
Jiahao Li
Khan Raqib Mahmud
Shuo Pang
author_facet Xiyuan Liu
Lingxiao Wang
Jiahao Li
Khan Raqib Mahmud
Shuo Pang
author_sort Xiyuan Liu
collection DOAJ
description In recent years, global weather changes have underscored the importance of wildfire detection, particularly through Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS)-based smoke detection using Deep Learning (DL) approaches. Among these, object detection algorithms like You Only Look Once version 7 (YOLOv7) have gained significant popularity due to their efficiency in identifying objects within images. However, these algorithms face limitations when applied to video feeds, as they treat each frame as an independent image, failing to track objects across consecutive frames. To address this issue, we propose a parametric Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trend estimation algorithm that incorporates an Auto-Regressive (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>A</mi><mi>R</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>p</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) error assumption. We demonstrate that this MCMC algorithm achieves stationarity for the AR(p) model under specific constraints. Additionally, as a parametric method, the proposed algorithm can be applied to any time-related data, enabling the detection of underlying causes of trend changes for further analysis. Finally, we show that the proposed method can “stabilize” YOLOv7 detections, serving as an additional step to enhance the original algorithm’s performance.
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spelling doaj-art-c9d43f1cb43f45dda45f17b7c6592bed2025-08-20T03:08:57ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902025-03-01137104610.3390/math13071046Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression ErrorsXiyuan Liu0Lingxiao Wang1Jiahao Li2Khan Raqib Mahmud3Shuo Pang4Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272, USADepartment of Electrical Engineering, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272, USADepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272, USADepartment of Computer Science, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA 71272, USADepartment of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL 32114, USAIn recent years, global weather changes have underscored the importance of wildfire detection, particularly through Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS)-based smoke detection using Deep Learning (DL) approaches. Among these, object detection algorithms like You Only Look Once version 7 (YOLOv7) have gained significant popularity due to their efficiency in identifying objects within images. However, these algorithms face limitations when applied to video feeds, as they treat each frame as an independent image, failing to track objects across consecutive frames. To address this issue, we propose a parametric Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) trend estimation algorithm that incorporates an Auto-Regressive (<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>A</mi><mi>R</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>p</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>) error assumption. We demonstrate that this MCMC algorithm achieves stationarity for the AR(p) model under specific constraints. Additionally, as a parametric method, the proposed algorithm can be applied to any time-related data, enabling the detection of underlying causes of trend changes for further analysis. Finally, we show that the proposed method can “stabilize” YOLOv7 detections, serving as an additional step to enhance the original algorithm’s performance.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/7/1046objective detectionauto-regressiontime series analysistrend estimationMarkov Chain Monte CarloHidden Markov Model
spellingShingle Xiyuan Liu
Lingxiao Wang
Jiahao Li
Khan Raqib Mahmud
Shuo Pang
Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
Mathematics
objective detection
auto-regression
time series analysis
trend estimation
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Hidden Markov Model
title Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
title_full Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
title_fullStr Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
title_full_unstemmed Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
title_short Enhancing Wildfire Detection via Trend Estimation Under Auto-Regression Errors
title_sort enhancing wildfire detection via trend estimation under auto regression errors
topic objective detection
auto-regression
time series analysis
trend estimation
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Hidden Markov Model
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/7/1046
work_keys_str_mv AT xiyuanliu enhancingwildfiredetectionviatrendestimationunderautoregressionerrors
AT lingxiaowang enhancingwildfiredetectionviatrendestimationunderautoregressionerrors
AT jiahaoli enhancingwildfiredetectionviatrendestimationunderautoregressionerrors
AT khanraqibmahmud enhancingwildfiredetectionviatrendestimationunderautoregressionerrors
AT shuopang enhancingwildfiredetectionviatrendestimationunderautoregressionerrors