Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops
This study aims to improve the understanding of the impact changes being experienced in our climate system will have on the level of crop productivity in the immediate period as well as in the nearest future. Nigeria was used as a case study and an observed climatic dataset was obtained and used al...
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UJ Press
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.uj.ac.za/index.php/DigitalFoodEnergy_WaterSystems/article/view/711 |
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| author | Oluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi Philip Gbenro Oguntunde Obafemi Olutola Olubanjo |
| author_facet | Oluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi Philip Gbenro Oguntunde Obafemi Olutola Olubanjo |
| author_sort | Oluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi |
| collection | DOAJ |
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This study aims to improve the understanding of the impact changes being experienced in our climate system will have on the level of crop productivity in the immediate period as well as in the nearest future. Nigeria was used as a case study and an observed climatic dataset was obtained and used alongside collected 20 year cassava, rice and soybean yield data to develop models that were applied to estimate future crop yield. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): NOAA, MIROC5, ICHEC, and NCC performed simulations for the period 1985–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5. These were used to predict how the yields of cassava, rice and soybean will be in the years 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for the 36 states in Nigeria and the FCT. 89 Empirical models were developed to estimate the yields of the three crops earlier mentioned across Nigeria with their coefficient of determination (R2) ranging between 15% - 99%. The result showed an increase of 3.91% (P<0.001), 0.08, 1.79 (P<0.1) and a decrease of 0.93% for cassava yield for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. It also projected an increase in yield of 8.88% (P<0.001), 7.77% (P<0.001), 6.62% (P<0.001) and 8.85% (P<0.001) for Rice yield using climatic data from ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. Soybean, increase in yield are 2.81% (P<0.01), 5.84% (P<0.001), 11.38 (P<0.001) and 9.06% (P<0.001) for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c9d2fbebdfce480e929e809f6cec10f5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2709-4510 2709-4529 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | UJ Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems |
| spelling | doaj-art-c9d2fbebdfce480e929e809f6cec10f52025-01-08T06:19:33ZengUJ PressJournal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems2709-45102709-45292021-12-012210.36615/digitalfoodenergywatersystems.v2i2.711Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of CropsOluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi0Philip Gbenro Oguntunde1Obafemi Olutola Olubanjo2Federal University Oye EkitiFederal University of Technology, AkureFederal University of Technology, Akure This study aims to improve the understanding of the impact changes being experienced in our climate system will have on the level of crop productivity in the immediate period as well as in the nearest future. Nigeria was used as a case study and an observed climatic dataset was obtained and used alongside collected 20 year cassava, rice and soybean yield data to develop models that were applied to estimate future crop yield. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): NOAA, MIROC5, ICHEC, and NCC performed simulations for the period 1985–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5. These were used to predict how the yields of cassava, rice and soybean will be in the years 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for the 36 states in Nigeria and the FCT. 89 Empirical models were developed to estimate the yields of the three crops earlier mentioned across Nigeria with their coefficient of determination (R2) ranging between 15% - 99%. The result showed an increase of 3.91% (P<0.001), 0.08, 1.79 (P<0.1) and a decrease of 0.93% for cassava yield for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. It also projected an increase in yield of 8.88% (P<0.001), 7.77% (P<0.001), 6.62% (P<0.001) and 8.85% (P<0.001) for Rice yield using climatic data from ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. Soybean, increase in yield are 2.81% (P<0.01), 5.84% (P<0.001), 11.38 (P<0.001) and 9.06% (P<0.001) for ICHEC, MIROC, NOAA and NCC respectively. https://journals.uj.ac.za/index.php/DigitalFoodEnergy_WaterSystems/article/view/711Climate ChangeEmpirical modelsRCP8.5YieldFood SecurityCrop production |
| spellingShingle | Oluwaseun Ayodele Ilesanmi Philip Gbenro Oguntunde Obafemi Olutola Olubanjo Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops Journal of Digital Food, Energy & Water Systems Climate Change Empirical models RCP8.5 Yield Food Security Crop production |
| title | Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops |
| title_full | Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops |
| title_short | Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops |
| title_sort | modelling the impacts of climate change on the yield of crops |
| topic | Climate Change Empirical models RCP8.5 Yield Food Security Crop production |
| url | https://journals.uj.ac.za/index.php/DigitalFoodEnergy_WaterSystems/article/view/711 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oluwaseunayodeleilesanmi modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheyieldofcrops AT philipgbenrooguntunde modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheyieldofcrops AT obafemiolutolaolubanjo modellingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontheyieldofcrops |