Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry
Abstract Compared to overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study developed and validated a nomogram-based dynamic prognostic model to predict the conditional survival estimates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (H...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-92500-z |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850181680558505984 |
|---|---|
| author | Jae Hyun Kwon Eun-Kyoung Jwa Jong Woo Lee Eunyoung Tak Shin Hwang |
| author_facet | Jae Hyun Kwon Eun-Kyoung Jwa Jong Woo Lee Eunyoung Tak Shin Hwang |
| author_sort | Jae Hyun Kwon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Compared to overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study developed and validated a nomogram-based dynamic prognostic model to predict the conditional survival estimates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through an analysis of a nationwide cancer registry. This retrospective cohort study included 2492 patients with HCC registered in the Korea Liver Cancer Registry. Patients underwent hepatic resection (HR) from 2008 to 2017, were followed up until December 2019, and were divided into development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine the risk factors for conditional survival of patients who underwent HR. The patients were scored based on the Cox regression coefficients; the nomogram was predicted by calculating the survival probability with Cox model. Our dynamic prognostic model nomogram for predicting conditional overall survival demonstrated Harrell’s C-index of 0.622 and 0.674 in the development and validation sets; for conditional disease-specific survival, it was 0.623 and 0.686 in the development and validation sets. The prediction power of the model is applicable in clinical practice. Factors incorporated in our nomogram included age, albumin, the ADV score, lymph node metastasis, and T stage in American Joint Commission on Cancer staging system. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict conditional survival estimates for overall survival and disease-specific survival. The proposed nomogram incorporating the ADV score presents a more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with HCC who received HR. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c95bb213e966414fb3945d18cd5ca29b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-c95bb213e966414fb3945d18cd5ca29b2025-08-20T02:17:50ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-92500-zDevelopment and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer RegistryJae Hyun Kwon0Eun-Kyoung Jwa1Jong Woo Lee2Eunyoung Tak3Shin Hwang4Department of Surgery, Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of MedicineDivision of Hepatobiliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of MedicineDepartment of Surgery, Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of MedicineAsan Institute for Life Sciences, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of MedicineDivision of Hepatobiliary Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of MedicineAbstract Compared to overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. This study developed and validated a nomogram-based dynamic prognostic model to predict the conditional survival estimates of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through an analysis of a nationwide cancer registry. This retrospective cohort study included 2492 patients with HCC registered in the Korea Liver Cancer Registry. Patients underwent hepatic resection (HR) from 2008 to 2017, were followed up until December 2019, and were divided into development and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to determine the risk factors for conditional survival of patients who underwent HR. The patients were scored based on the Cox regression coefficients; the nomogram was predicted by calculating the survival probability with Cox model. Our dynamic prognostic model nomogram for predicting conditional overall survival demonstrated Harrell’s C-index of 0.622 and 0.674 in the development and validation sets; for conditional disease-specific survival, it was 0.623 and 0.686 in the development and validation sets. The prediction power of the model is applicable in clinical practice. Factors incorporated in our nomogram included age, albumin, the ADV score, lymph node metastasis, and T stage in American Joint Commission on Cancer staging system. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict conditional survival estimates for overall survival and disease-specific survival. The proposed nomogram incorporating the ADV score presents a more accurate and useful prognostic prediction for patients with HCC who received HR.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-92500-zHepatocellular carcinomaHepatectomyPrognosis |
| spellingShingle | Jae Hyun Kwon Eun-Kyoung Jwa Jong Woo Lee Eunyoung Tak Shin Hwang Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry Scientific Reports Hepatocellular carcinoma Hepatectomy Prognosis |
| title | Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry |
| title_full | Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry |
| title_short | Development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: an analysis from the Korea Liver Cancer Registry |
| title_sort | development and validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for conditional survival in hepatocellular carcinoma an analysis from the korea liver cancer registry |
| topic | Hepatocellular carcinoma Hepatectomy Prognosis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-92500-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jaehyunkwon developmentandvalidationofadynamicprognosticnomogramforconditionalsurvivalinhepatocellularcarcinomaananalysisfromthekorealivercancerregistry AT eunkyoungjwa developmentandvalidationofadynamicprognosticnomogramforconditionalsurvivalinhepatocellularcarcinomaananalysisfromthekorealivercancerregistry AT jongwoolee developmentandvalidationofadynamicprognosticnomogramforconditionalsurvivalinhepatocellularcarcinomaananalysisfromthekorealivercancerregistry AT eunyoungtak developmentandvalidationofadynamicprognosticnomogramforconditionalsurvivalinhepatocellularcarcinomaananalysisfromthekorealivercancerregistry AT shinhwang developmentandvalidationofadynamicprognosticnomogramforconditionalsurvivalinhepatocellularcarcinomaananalysisfromthekorealivercancerregistry |