Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management

Awareness of the potential threat of significant natural hazards necessitates the introduction of appropriate procedures allowing for effective and systematic actions aimed at eliminating, or at least partially limiting the effects of such events. Due to the nature of drought and the complex process...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Tamara Tokarczyk, Wiwiana Szalińska
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: University of Agriculture in Krakow 2018-11-01
Series:Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.formatiocircumiectus.actapol.net/pub/17_3_217.pdf
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846096098036285440
author Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
author_facet Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
author_sort Tamara Tokarczyk
collection DOAJ
description Awareness of the potential threat of significant natural hazards necessitates the introduction of appropriate procedures allowing for effective and systematic actions aimed at eliminating, or at least partially limiting the effects of such events. Due to the nature of drought and the complex process of its development, the cause and effect approach is widely used in assessing droughts. Naturally, this leads to the treatment of drought in terms of risk, which is defined as a derivative of hazards and consequences. Thus formulated definition of drought leads, in a broader context, to endeavours at minimizing the effects and reducing the size of losses, taking into account the prioritization of activities. An active drought risk management policy is necessary to achieve the safety of water resources in the face of current climate threats and expected further changes. The aim of this work is to present the original concept of drought risk assessment for the needs of strategic risk management as an integrated approach to the implementation of the drought management plan. Risk management is crucial and necessary to effectively reducing the effects of drought in a sustainable manner, in the context of meeting the needs of the population, the environment, and the economy. Risk management is a continuous process, consisting of logically arranged, consecutive events, actions, decisions and approvals, repeated cyclically in the course of monitoring the achieved results and implementing optional adaptations to the observed and forecasted changes. The risk management system presented in the work creates an organizational, methodical and functional framework, the implementation of which in the form of structural and IT solutions may be a tool for effective operation of plans aimed at counteracting the effects of drought on the level of particular water regions and river catchments. The proposed approach, based on strategic management in pursuit of sustainable assurance of water safety for social and natural systems, ensures durability of services of freshwater ecosystems responsible for maintaining biodiversity, maintaining life processes and regeneration of the environment, as well as providing people with economic benefits. The integrated SPI-SRI index of coexistence of humidity conditions was used to assess the risk of drought. The aforementioned index made it possible to determine the likelihood of a drought in probabilistic terms, including the phase of atmospheric and hydrological drought in a given basin, which is a key element in drought risk assessment. The estimated period of repeatability of the threat of dry or very dry meteorological conditions leading to hydrological drought in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment was calculated as once every 7.2 years, and in the Prosna catchment, once every 8 years. This information can be used in planning actions aimed at minimizing the effects of drought, and in water management (for instance, on reservoirs) aimed at reducing these effects.
format Article
id doaj-art-c944cada819445c1b95b29b239a1391d
institution Kabale University
issn 1644-0765
language English
publishDate 2018-11-01
publisher University of Agriculture in Krakow
record_format Article
series Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus
spelling doaj-art-c944cada819445c1b95b29b239a1391d2025-01-02T08:22:22ZengUniversity of Agriculture in KrakowActa Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus1644-07652018-11-0117321722910.15576/ASP.FC/2018.17.3.217Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk managementTamara Tokarczyk0Wiwiana Szalińska1The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research InstituteThe Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research InstituteAwareness of the potential threat of significant natural hazards necessitates the introduction of appropriate procedures allowing for effective and systematic actions aimed at eliminating, or at least partially limiting the effects of such events. Due to the nature of drought and the complex process of its development, the cause and effect approach is widely used in assessing droughts. Naturally, this leads to the treatment of drought in terms of risk, which is defined as a derivative of hazards and consequences. Thus formulated definition of drought leads, in a broader context, to endeavours at minimizing the effects and reducing the size of losses, taking into account the prioritization of activities. An active drought risk management policy is necessary to achieve the safety of water resources in the face of current climate threats and expected further changes. The aim of this work is to present the original concept of drought risk assessment for the needs of strategic risk management as an integrated approach to the implementation of the drought management plan. Risk management is crucial and necessary to effectively reducing the effects of drought in a sustainable manner, in the context of meeting the needs of the population, the environment, and the economy. Risk management is a continuous process, consisting of logically arranged, consecutive events, actions, decisions and approvals, repeated cyclically in the course of monitoring the achieved results and implementing optional adaptations to the observed and forecasted changes. The risk management system presented in the work creates an organizational, methodical and functional framework, the implementation of which in the form of structural and IT solutions may be a tool for effective operation of plans aimed at counteracting the effects of drought on the level of particular water regions and river catchments. The proposed approach, based on strategic management in pursuit of sustainable assurance of water safety for social and natural systems, ensures durability of services of freshwater ecosystems responsible for maintaining biodiversity, maintaining life processes and regeneration of the environment, as well as providing people with economic benefits. The integrated SPI-SRI index of coexistence of humidity conditions was used to assess the risk of drought. The aforementioned index made it possible to determine the likelihood of a drought in probabilistic terms, including the phase of atmospheric and hydrological drought in a given basin, which is a key element in drought risk assessment. The estimated period of repeatability of the threat of dry or very dry meteorological conditions leading to hydrological drought in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment was calculated as once every 7.2 years, and in the Prosna catchment, once every 8 years. This information can be used in planning actions aimed at minimizing the effects of drought, and in water management (for instance, on reservoirs) aimed at reducing these effects.http://www.formatiocircumiectus.actapol.net/pub/17_3_217.pdfconsequences of droughtstrategic risk management conceptdecision making
spellingShingle Tamara Tokarczyk
Wiwiana Szalińska
Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Formatio Circumiectus
consequences of drought
strategic risk management concept
decision making
title Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
title_full Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
title_fullStr Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
title_full_unstemmed Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
title_short Drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
title_sort drought hazard assessment in the process of drought risk management
topic consequences of drought
strategic risk management concept
decision making
url http://www.formatiocircumiectus.actapol.net/pub/17_3_217.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT tamaratokarczyk droughthazardassessmentintheprocessofdroughtriskmanagement
AT wiwianaszalinska droughthazardassessmentintheprocessofdroughtriskmanagement