Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model
Shipping sector is vital to Indian economy, making it crucial to understand the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on port operations to develop strategies for future resilience. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on Deendayal Port, a key Indian port, by analyzing freight volume, reve...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Multimodal Transportation |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772586325000152 |
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| author | Deepjyoti Das Aditya Saxena |
| author_facet | Deepjyoti Das Aditya Saxena |
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| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Shipping sector is vital to Indian economy, making it crucial to understand the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on port operations to develop strategies for future resilience. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on Deendayal Port, a key Indian port, by analyzing freight volume, revenue, and expenditure data from April 2012 to October 2022. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling covers pre-COVID, two COVID-19 waves, and post-COVID scenarios. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models for revenue and expenditure evaluate economic losses. The results show 6.2% decline in freight volume during the first wave, with a decrease from 123.4 million tons (Mt) to 115.8 Mt, leading to a monthly average loss of 0.6 Mt. The second wave saw recovery, with freight volume increasing from the forecasted 127.6 Mt to 129.6 Mt, resulting in a monthly gain of 0.2 Mt. Revenue losses during wave 1 were 215 crore INR, while wave 2 saw a revenue increase of 57 crore INR. The study highlights the importance of operational efficiency and managing key cost drivers like volume and manpower to maintain financial stability. These findings lay a foundation for future research to strengthen the shipping industry's resilience and sustainability in post-pandemic world. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c8ec093faf874c63b07c42e7a708f30b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2772-5863 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Multimodal Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-c8ec093faf874c63b07c42e7a708f30b2025-01-30T05:15:15ZengElsevierMultimodal Transportation2772-58632025-06-0142100201Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting modelDeepjyoti Das0Aditya Saxena1Division of Environmental Systems Analysis (ESA), Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg 41296, Sweden; Corresponding author.Centre for Urban Science and Engineering (CUSE), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400076, IndiaShipping sector is vital to Indian economy, making it crucial to understand the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on port operations to develop strategies for future resilience. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on Deendayal Port, a key Indian port, by analyzing freight volume, revenue, and expenditure data from April 2012 to October 2022. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling covers pre-COVID, two COVID-19 waves, and post-COVID scenarios. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models for revenue and expenditure evaluate economic losses. The results show 6.2% decline in freight volume during the first wave, with a decrease from 123.4 million tons (Mt) to 115.8 Mt, leading to a monthly average loss of 0.6 Mt. The second wave saw recovery, with freight volume increasing from the forecasted 127.6 Mt to 129.6 Mt, resulting in a monthly gain of 0.2 Mt. Revenue losses during wave 1 were 215 crore INR, while wave 2 saw a revenue increase of 57 crore INR. The study highlights the importance of operational efficiency and managing key cost drivers like volume and manpower to maintain financial stability. These findings lay a foundation for future research to strengthen the shipping industry's resilience and sustainability in post-pandemic world.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772586325000152Post-pandemic SustainabilityEconomic impact analysisMaritime logisticsShipping industry resiliencePort efficiencyPandemic recovery |
| spellingShingle | Deepjyoti Das Aditya Saxena Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model Multimodal Transportation Post-pandemic Sustainability Economic impact analysis Maritime logistics Shipping industry resilience Port efficiency Pandemic recovery |
| title | Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model |
| title_full | Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model |
| title_fullStr | Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model |
| title_short | Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on freight volume, revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in India: An ARIMA forecasting model |
| title_sort | effect of covid 19 pandemic on freight volume revenue and expenditure of deendayal port in india an arima forecasting model |
| topic | Post-pandemic Sustainability Economic impact analysis Maritime logistics Shipping industry resilience Port efficiency Pandemic recovery |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772586325000152 |
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