The precipitous decline of a gray fox population

Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) populations have apparently declined across the Midwestern United States which may be reflected in their distributional patterns and occupancy. To assess the severity of gray fox population declines and potential changing space use patterns, we used two temporally...

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Main Authors: Max R. Larreur, Clayton K. Nielsen, Damon B. Lesmeister, Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Global Ecology and Conservation
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000423
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author Max R. Larreur
Clayton K. Nielsen
Damon B. Lesmeister
Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
author_facet Max R. Larreur
Clayton K. Nielsen
Damon B. Lesmeister
Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
author_sort Max R. Larreur
collection DOAJ
description Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) populations have apparently declined across the Midwestern United States which may be reflected in their distributional patterns and occupancy. To assess the severity of gray fox population declines and potential changing space use patterns, we used two temporally independent datasets collected using camera traps at the same sites during 2008–2010 and 2022–2023 within a 16,058-km2 area of southern Illinois, USA. We then developed three predictive occupancy models that allowed comparison of gray fox spatial patterns and occupancy estimates over time. We assessed pairwise model predictive occupancy estimates using relative rank correlation and density plot overlap. Naïve occupancy (i.e., ndetected/nsurveyed) of gray fox declined from 0.20 to 0.06 between our two time periods. Predicted occupancy ranged from 0.01–0.47 to 0.11–0.43 between past and future spatial models, respectively, indicating stable gray fox occupancy and space use patterns. The contemporary model had predicted occupancy ranging from 0.02 to 0.10, a 4-fold decline in occupancy estimates across 99 % of our study extent. Most habitat features had different directional effects on gray fox occupancy between our two temporal periods, illustrating the complexity of gray fox habitat preferences and a shift in their ecology. Our study highlights the need for increased conservation and management of gray fox populations as their populations have indicated evident declines across the Midwest.
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spelling doaj-art-c8bb4e2d39f149978d77e17485cf6b132025-08-20T02:47:13ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942025-04-0158e0344110.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03441The precipitous decline of a gray fox populationMax R. Larreur0Clayton K. Nielsen1Damon B. Lesmeister2Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau3Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University, 1263 Lincoln Dr, Carbondale, IL 62901, USA; Corresponding author.Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University, 1263 Lincoln Dr, Carbondale, IL 62901, USAUSDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USACooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University, 1263 Lincoln Dr, Carbondale, IL 62901, USAGray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) populations have apparently declined across the Midwestern United States which may be reflected in their distributional patterns and occupancy. To assess the severity of gray fox population declines and potential changing space use patterns, we used two temporally independent datasets collected using camera traps at the same sites during 2008–2010 and 2022–2023 within a 16,058-km2 area of southern Illinois, USA. We then developed three predictive occupancy models that allowed comparison of gray fox spatial patterns and occupancy estimates over time. We assessed pairwise model predictive occupancy estimates using relative rank correlation and density plot overlap. Naïve occupancy (i.e., ndetected/nsurveyed) of gray fox declined from 0.20 to 0.06 between our two time periods. Predicted occupancy ranged from 0.01–0.47 to 0.11–0.43 between past and future spatial models, respectively, indicating stable gray fox occupancy and space use patterns. The contemporary model had predicted occupancy ranging from 0.02 to 0.10, a 4-fold decline in occupancy estimates across 99 % of our study extent. Most habitat features had different directional effects on gray fox occupancy between our two temporal periods, illustrating the complexity of gray fox habitat preferences and a shift in their ecology. Our study highlights the need for increased conservation and management of gray fox populations as their populations have indicated evident declines across the Midwest.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000423Urocyon cinereoargenteusOccupancySpatial modelCarnivorePopulation decline
spellingShingle Max R. Larreur
Clayton K. Nielsen
Damon B. Lesmeister
Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau
The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
Global Ecology and Conservation
Urocyon cinereoargenteus
Occupancy
Spatial model
Carnivore
Population decline
title The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
title_full The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
title_fullStr The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
title_full_unstemmed The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
title_short The precipitous decline of a gray fox population
title_sort precipitous decline of a gray fox population
topic Urocyon cinereoargenteus
Occupancy
Spatial model
Carnivore
Population decline
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425000423
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