Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study
Abstract Objective Insulin resistance (IR) is often present in diabetes, which imposes a heavy burden on the prevention and treatment of diabetes. Triglyceride glucose index (TyG) is simple, reliable and reproducible in detecting IR, and has great advantages in predicting the risk of diabetes. The a...
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2025-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Endocrine Disorders |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12902-025-01848-w |
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| author | Yingqi Shan Qingyang Liu Tianshu Gao |
| author_facet | Yingqi Shan Qingyang Liu Tianshu Gao |
| author_sort | Yingqi Shan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objective Insulin resistance (IR) is often present in diabetes, which imposes a heavy burden on the prevention and treatment of diabetes. Triglyceride glucose index (TyG) is simple, reliable and reproducible in detecting IR, and has great advantages in predicting the risk of diabetes. The aim of this study was to analyze the potential association between TyG and the risk of diabetes in Chinese middle-aged and older adults using a prospective cohort study design. Methods This study used longitudinal data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020, involving 5886 participants. We used Cox proportional risk regression modeling to investigate the association between TyG index and the risk of new-onset diabetes, and decision tree analysis to identify high-risk groups for diabetes. Finally, ROC curves were applied in order to construct a predictive model for diabetes. Results A total of 1054 (17.9%) participants developed diabetes throughout the 9-year follow-up. Our study utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model and found a significant correlation between TyG index and diabetes risk. The analysis also revealed a nonlinear relationship between TyG index and diabetes risk.Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve analysis showed that the Area under the curve(AUC) area of TyG index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes was 0.652 (P < 0.05). Conclusions TyG index can be used as a risk factor for predicting new-onset diabetes in the middle-aged and elderly population in China. In addition, there was a nonlinear relationship between TyG index and diabetes. Improving insulin resistance by regulating glucose and lipid metabolism plays an important role in the primary prevention of diabetes. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1472-6823 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Endocrine Disorders |
| spelling | doaj-art-c877f54246fd4d66b77af66e5fe43bb52025-01-26T12:37:39ZengBMCBMC Endocrine Disorders1472-68232025-01-0125111310.1186/s12902-025-01848-wTriglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort studyYingqi Shan0Qingyang Liu1Tianshu Gao2Graduate School of Liaoning, University of Traditional Chinese MedicineDepartment of Endocrinology, Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese MedicineDepartment of Endocrinology, Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese MedicineAbstract Objective Insulin resistance (IR) is often present in diabetes, which imposes a heavy burden on the prevention and treatment of diabetes. Triglyceride glucose index (TyG) is simple, reliable and reproducible in detecting IR, and has great advantages in predicting the risk of diabetes. The aim of this study was to analyze the potential association between TyG and the risk of diabetes in Chinese middle-aged and older adults using a prospective cohort study design. Methods This study used longitudinal data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020, involving 5886 participants. We used Cox proportional risk regression modeling to investigate the association between TyG index and the risk of new-onset diabetes, and decision tree analysis to identify high-risk groups for diabetes. Finally, ROC curves were applied in order to construct a predictive model for diabetes. Results A total of 1054 (17.9%) participants developed diabetes throughout the 9-year follow-up. Our study utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model and found a significant correlation between TyG index and diabetes risk. The analysis also revealed a nonlinear relationship between TyG index and diabetes risk.Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve analysis showed that the Area under the curve(AUC) area of TyG index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes was 0.652 (P < 0.05). Conclusions TyG index can be used as a risk factor for predicting new-onset diabetes in the middle-aged and elderly population in China. In addition, there was a nonlinear relationship between TyG index and diabetes. Improving insulin resistance by regulating glucose and lipid metabolism plays an important role in the primary prevention of diabetes.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12902-025-01848-wTriglyceride-glucose indexNew-onset diabetesAged 45years and olderChort studyCHARLS database |
| spellingShingle | Yingqi Shan Qingyang Liu Tianshu Gao Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study BMC Endocrine Disorders Triglyceride-glucose index New-onset diabetes Aged 45years and older Chort study CHARLS database |
| title | Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study |
| title_full | Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study |
| title_fullStr | Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study |
| title_short | Triglyceride-glucose index in predicting the risk of new-onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older: a national prospective cohort study |
| title_sort | triglyceride glucose index in predicting the risk of new onset diabetes in the general population aged 45 years and older a national prospective cohort study |
| topic | Triglyceride-glucose index New-onset diabetes Aged 45years and older Chort study CHARLS database |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12902-025-01848-w |
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