A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence

Ensuring effective medication adherence is vital for managing chronic diseases, yet global patient adherence remains suboptimal. This study aims to develop a predictive model for medication adherence behaviour (MAB) employing machine learning techniques, addressing the limitations of traditional cor...

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Main Authors: Junwu Dong, Minyi Chu, Yirou Xu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-06-01
Series:Healthcare Analytics
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000164
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author Junwu Dong
Minyi Chu
Yirou Xu
author_facet Junwu Dong
Minyi Chu
Yirou Xu
author_sort Junwu Dong
collection DOAJ
description Ensuring effective medication adherence is vital for managing chronic diseases, yet global patient adherence remains suboptimal. This study aims to develop a predictive model for medication adherence behaviour (MAB) employing machine learning techniques, addressing the limitations of traditional correlation-based approaches. Based on the Meta-Theoretic Model of Motivation and Personality (3M Model), data from 428 chronic disease patients, included dark triad traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), general self-efficacy, doctor-patient trust, and demographic variables. Five machine learning algorithms – multiple logistic regression, decision tree, adaptive boosting, random forest and support vector machine (SVM) – were utilized to identify MAB levels and assess feature importance. Among these, the random forest model achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 0.637, recall of 0.538, precision of 0.556, and an F1 score of 0.544. Feature ranking revealed that narcissism, Machiavellianism, doctor-patient trust, psychopathy, and general self-efficacy were the most influential predictors. These findings demonstrate that integrating psychological and demographic factors into machine learning models can enhance the prediction of medication adherence. This study presents a novel interdisciplinary framework that integrates behavioural health analytics and data science to inform clinical decision-making. It provides valuable insights into the severity and temporal progression of medication adherence behaviours, offering clinicians a practical reference for developing more effective intervention strategies.
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spelling doaj-art-c86ea0e9de6f4c1294a8b09bf72cc53f2025-08-20T03:21:38ZengElsevierHealthcare Analytics2772-44252025-06-01710039710.1016/j.health.2025.100397A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherenceJunwu Dong0Minyi Chu1Yirou Xu2School of Business, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, GuangZhou, Guangdong Province, China; Corresponding author.School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, GuangZhou, Guangdong Province, ChinaEnsuring effective medication adherence is vital for managing chronic diseases, yet global patient adherence remains suboptimal. This study aims to develop a predictive model for medication adherence behaviour (MAB) employing machine learning techniques, addressing the limitations of traditional correlation-based approaches. Based on the Meta-Theoretic Model of Motivation and Personality (3M Model), data from 428 chronic disease patients, included dark triad traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy), general self-efficacy, doctor-patient trust, and demographic variables. Five machine learning algorithms – multiple logistic regression, decision tree, adaptive boosting, random forest and support vector machine (SVM) – were utilized to identify MAB levels and assess feature importance. Among these, the random forest model achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 0.637, recall of 0.538, precision of 0.556, and an F1 score of 0.544. Feature ranking revealed that narcissism, Machiavellianism, doctor-patient trust, psychopathy, and general self-efficacy were the most influential predictors. These findings demonstrate that integrating psychological and demographic factors into machine learning models can enhance the prediction of medication adherence. This study presents a novel interdisciplinary framework that integrates behavioural health analytics and data science to inform clinical decision-making. It provides valuable insights into the severity and temporal progression of medication adherence behaviours, offering clinicians a practical reference for developing more effective intervention strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000164Machine learningPredictive modellingClinical decision-makingPsychological factorsMedication adherence analyticsChronic disease
spellingShingle Junwu Dong
Minyi Chu
Yirou Xu
A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
Healthcare Analytics
Machine learning
Predictive modelling
Clinical decision-making
Psychological factors
Medication adherence analytics
Chronic disease
title A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
title_full A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
title_fullStr A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
title_full_unstemmed A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
title_short A predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
title_sort predictive healthcare model using machine learning and psychological factors for medication adherence
topic Machine learning
Predictive modelling
Clinical decision-making
Psychological factors
Medication adherence analytics
Chronic disease
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442525000164
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