A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather

Abstract Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrate global observations, data assimilation (DA), and physics-based models. However, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast obser...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Xiuyu Sun, Xiaohui Zhong, Xiaoze Xu, Yuanqing Huang, Hao Li, J. David Neelin, Deliang Chen, Jie Feng, Wei Han, Libo Wu, Yuan Qi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62024-1
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Summary:Abstract Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrate global observations, data assimilation (DA), and physics-based models. However, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and challenges in obtaining finer resolution. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, but still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems. Here, we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning-based global forecasting system that assimilates multi-satellite data and is capable of cycling DA and forecasting. FuXi Weather generates reliable 10-day forecasts at 0.25° resolution using fewer observations than conventional NWP systems. It demonstrates the value of background forecasts in constraining the analysis during DA. FuXi Weather outperforms the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts high-resolution forecasts beyond day one in observation-sparse regions such as central Africa, highlighting its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.
ISSN:2041-1723