Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model
Using the data of radon accumulation in a chamber with excess volume at one of the points of the Kamchatka subsurface gas-monitoring network, the change in radon flux density due to seismic waves and post-seismic relaxation of the medium is shown. A linear fractional equation is considered to be a m...
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2025-01-01
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| author | Dmitrii Tverdyi Evgeny Makarov Roman Parovik |
| author_facet | Dmitrii Tverdyi Evgeny Makarov Roman Parovik |
| author_sort | Dmitrii Tverdyi |
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| description | Using the data of radon accumulation in a chamber with excess volume at one of the points of the Kamchatka subsurface gas-monitoring network, the change in radon flux density due to seismic waves and post-seismic relaxation of the medium is shown. A linear fractional equation is considered to be a model equation. The change of radon-transport intensity due to changes in the state of the geo-environment is described by a fractional Gerasimov–Caputo derivative of constant order. Presumably, the order of the fractional derivative is related to the radon-transport intensity in the geosphere. Using the Levenberg–Marquardt method, the optimal values of the model parameters were determined based on experimental data: air exchange coefficient and order of fractional derivative, which allowed the solving of the problems of radon flux density determination. Data in the temporal neighborhood of a strong earthquake with <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>w</mi></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>7.0</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, which occurred in the northern part of Avacha Bay on 17 August 2024, were used. As a result of the modeling, it is shown that the strong seismic impact and subsequent processes led to changes in the radon flux in the accumulation chamber. The obtained model curves agree well with the real data, and the obtained estimates of radon flux density agree with the theory. |
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| spelling | doaj-art-c85b5ae55a8c4b6f942f606d9a953a272025-01-24T13:34:14ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632025-01-011513010.3390/geosciences15010030Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical ModelDmitrii Tverdyi0Evgeny Makarov1Roman Parovik2Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Paratunka, Mirnaya Street 7, 684034 Kamchatka, RussiaKamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center “Unified Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences”, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Piipa Boulevard St. 9, 683023 Kamchatka, RussiaInstitute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Paratunka, Mirnaya Street 7, 684034 Kamchatka, RussiaUsing the data of radon accumulation in a chamber with excess volume at one of the points of the Kamchatka subsurface gas-monitoring network, the change in radon flux density due to seismic waves and post-seismic relaxation of the medium is shown. A linear fractional equation is considered to be a model equation. The change of radon-transport intensity due to changes in the state of the geo-environment is described by a fractional Gerasimov–Caputo derivative of constant order. Presumably, the order of the fractional derivative is related to the radon-transport intensity in the geosphere. Using the Levenberg–Marquardt method, the optimal values of the model parameters were determined based on experimental data: air exchange coefficient and order of fractional derivative, which allowed the solving of the problems of radon flux density determination. Data in the temporal neighborhood of a strong earthquake with <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msub><mi>M</mi><mi>w</mi></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>7.0</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>, which occurred in the northern part of Avacha Bay on 17 August 2024, were used. As a result of the modeling, it is shown that the strong seismic impact and subsequent processes led to changes in the radon flux in the accumulation chamber. The obtained model curves agree well with the real data, and the obtained estimates of radon flux density agree with the theory.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/1/30mathematical modelingradon volumetric activityradon flux densityearthquake precursorsGerasimov–Caputo fractional derivativememory effect |
| spellingShingle | Dmitrii Tverdyi Evgeny Makarov Roman Parovik Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model Geosciences mathematical modeling radon volumetric activity radon flux density earthquake precursors Gerasimov–Caputo fractional derivative memory effect |
| title | Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model |
| title_full | Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model |
| title_short | Estimation of Radon Flux Density Changes in Temporal Vicinity of the Shipunskoe Earthquake with <i>M</i><sub>w</sub> = 7.0, 17 August 2024 with the Use of the Hereditary Mathematical Model |
| title_sort | estimation of radon flux density changes in temporal vicinity of the shipunskoe earthquake with i m i sub w sub 7 0 17 august 2024 with the use of the hereditary mathematical model |
| topic | mathematical modeling radon volumetric activity radon flux density earthquake precursors Gerasimov–Caputo fractional derivative memory effect |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/1/30 |
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