Time Series Decomposition Using Wavelet and Fourier Transforms for Enhanced Solar Flare Forecasting

Time series decomposition enables the extraction of meaningful components by filtering out irrelevant or noisy frequencies. This study investigates the use of four transformation techniques—three wavelet-based (Haar, Symlets, Daubechies) and one Fourier-based (Discrete Fourier Transform)—to reconst...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Victor Solomon, Junzhi Wen, Rafal Angryk, Manya Rampuria, Omkar Rayala, Abdul Afrid
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: LibraryPress@UF 2025-05-01
Series:Proceedings of the International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference
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Online Access:https://journals.flvc.org/FLAIRS/article/view/139016
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Summary:Time series decomposition enables the extraction of meaningful components by filtering out irrelevant or noisy frequencies. This study investigates the use of four transformation techniques—three wavelet-based (Haar, Symlets, Daubechies) and one Fourier-based (Discrete Fourier Transform)—to reconstruct multivari ate time series data for solar flare prediction. The recon structed data is used to train and evaluate two classifiers: Time Series Forest (TSF) for time series inputs, and Random Forest (RF) for transformed non-time-series representations. We describe the data preparation pipeline, model train ing, and comparative performance analysis of TSF and RF. Additionally, we assess the effectiveness of data reduction by evaluating model performance on re duced datasets. Results show that TSF models consis tently outperform RF models, and that reduced datasets yield competitive predictive performance. These find ings suggest the potential for computational efficiency in near-real-time flare prediction without significant loss in accuracy. Evaluation metrics include the True Skill Statistic (TSS) and Heidke Skill Score (HSS2).
ISSN:2334-0754
2334-0762