Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms
This study has conducted a forecast analysis of the energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of Turkey, a developing country. Considering Turkey’s rapidly increasing energy demand, various economic and social parameters have been used for the years 1990-2024. Both machine learning and deep l...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Kaunas University of Technology
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Elektronika ir Elektrotechnika |
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| Online Access: | https://eejournal.ktu.lt/index.php/elt/article/view/40288 |
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| author | Emre Bolat Yagmur Arikan Yildiz |
| author_facet | Emre Bolat Yagmur Arikan Yildiz |
| author_sort | Emre Bolat |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study has conducted a forecast analysis of the energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of Turkey, a developing country. Considering Turkey’s rapidly increasing energy demand, various economic and social parameters have been used for the years 1990-2024. Both machine learning and deep learning methods have been applied, and artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional neural network (CNN), recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and linear regression (LR) algorithms have been used for two models. The performance of these models has been assessed using various error metrics. The ANN has demonstrated the highest accuracy in modelling energy demand, achieving a coefficient of determination of 98.89 %, while the RNN has shown the best performance in modelling CO2 emissions, with a coefficient of determination of 96.80 %. The findings have shown that the growth rates in energy demand and CO2 emissions are high in the early years but slowed in the following years. However, it has been determined that the general trend continued to increase. The study emphasises the need for Turkey to diversify its energy sources and increase the use of renewable energy to meet its increasing energy demand. It also has concluded that accelerating efforts to achieve net zero emission targets are critical to long-term energy security and environmental sustainability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c6ea29bec1ea4066962c5fd02c732f40 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1392-1215 2029-5731 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Kaunas University of Technology |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Elektronika ir Elektrotechnika |
| spelling | doaj-art-c6ea29bec1ea4066962c5fd02c732f402025-08-20T03:01:57ZengKaunas University of TechnologyElektronika ir Elektrotechnika1392-12152029-57312025-02-01311122110.5755/j02.eie.4028845542Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning AlgorithmsEmre Bolat0https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0806-8999Yagmur Arikan Yildiz1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0947-2832Information Systems Department, Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Sivas, TurkeyElectrical and Electronic Engineering, Sivas University of Science and Technology, Sivas, TurkeyThis study has conducted a forecast analysis of the energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of Turkey, a developing country. Considering Turkey’s rapidly increasing energy demand, various economic and social parameters have been used for the years 1990-2024. Both machine learning and deep learning methods have been applied, and artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional neural network (CNN), recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and linear regression (LR) algorithms have been used for two models. The performance of these models has been assessed using various error metrics. The ANN has demonstrated the highest accuracy in modelling energy demand, achieving a coefficient of determination of 98.89 %, while the RNN has shown the best performance in modelling CO2 emissions, with a coefficient of determination of 96.80 %. The findings have shown that the growth rates in energy demand and CO2 emissions are high in the early years but slowed in the following years. However, it has been determined that the general trend continued to increase. The study emphasises the need for Turkey to diversify its energy sources and increase the use of renewable energy to meet its increasing energy demand. It also has concluded that accelerating efforts to achieve net zero emission targets are critical to long-term energy security and environmental sustainability.https://eejournal.ktu.lt/index.php/elt/article/view/40288energy demandco2 emissiondeep learningmachine learningsustainability |
| spellingShingle | Emre Bolat Yagmur Arikan Yildiz Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms Elektronika ir Elektrotechnika energy demand co2 emission deep learning machine learning sustainability |
| title | Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms |
| title_full | Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms |
| title_fullStr | Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms |
| title_short | Energy Demand and CO2 Emission Forecast Model for Turkey with Deep Learning and Machine Learning Algorithms |
| title_sort | energy demand and co2 emission forecast model for turkey with deep learning and machine learning algorithms |
| topic | energy demand co2 emission deep learning machine learning sustainability |
| url | https://eejournal.ktu.lt/index.php/elt/article/view/40288 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT emrebolat energydemandandco2emissionforecastmodelforturkeywithdeeplearningandmachinelearningalgorithms AT yagmurarikanyildiz energydemandandco2emissionforecastmodelforturkeywithdeeplearningandmachinelearningalgorithms |