Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa
Objective: In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region with the highest fertility rates globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is emerging as a major public health challenge for women of childbearing age. This study aimed to analyze CRC mortality trends, identify key driving factors, and predict future morta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Preventive Medicine Reports |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211335525002062 |
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| author | Jiefeng Zhao Daxing Miao Tao Yang Jiang Chen Xiangquan Lai |
| author_facet | Jiefeng Zhao Daxing Miao Tao Yang Jiang Chen Xiangquan Lai |
| author_sort | Jiefeng Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region with the highest fertility rates globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is emerging as a major public health challenge for women of childbearing age. This study aimed to analyze CRC mortality trends, identify key driving factors, and predict future mortality patterns among women of childbearing age in SSA. Methods: We assessed CRC mortality among women of childbearing age across four SSA subregions and 46 countries, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Das Gupta decomposition method quantified the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected mortality trends from 2022 to 2040, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model were used for sensitivity analysis. Results: From 1990 to 2021, CRC mortality rose significantly in Eastern and Western SSA. In 2021, Southern SSA had the highest ASMR and fastest growth (EAPC = 1.63), while Western SSA had the lowest ASMR. The mortality in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are of particular concern. The region exhibited an overall upward trend in CRC mortality alongside increasing Socio-demographic index. Population growth was the primary driver of increasing mortality across the four subregions and 45 countries. Projections indicated that ASMR will rise in Central and Western SSA but decline in Eastern and Southern SSA by 2040. Conclusions: Population growth is a crucial factor driving the CRC mortality of women of childbearing age in SSA. Regional disparities reflected varying epidemiological transitions and healthcare capacities. Screening programs and cancer registries are key to reducing future burdens. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c6c5745177704f4cbbf89596166f2854 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-3355 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Preventive Medicine Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-c6c5745177704f4cbbf89596166f28542025-08-20T03:27:57ZengElsevierPreventive Medicine Reports2211-33552025-08-015610316710.1016/j.pmedr.2025.103167Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan AfricaJiefeng Zhao0Daxing Miao1Tao Yang2Jiang Chen3Xiangquan Lai4Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China; Corresponding authors at: Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China.Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, ChinaDepartment of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China; State Key Laboratory of Holistic Integrative Management of Gastrointestinal Cancers, Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shanxi Province, ChinaDepartment of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, ChinaDepartment of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China; Corresponding authors at: Department of Colorectal and Anal Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China.Objective: In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region with the highest fertility rates globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is emerging as a major public health challenge for women of childbearing age. This study aimed to analyze CRC mortality trends, identify key driving factors, and predict future mortality patterns among women of childbearing age in SSA. Methods: We assessed CRC mortality among women of childbearing age across four SSA subregions and 46 countries, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Das Gupta decomposition method quantified the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected mortality trends from 2022 to 2040, and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model were used for sensitivity analysis. Results: From 1990 to 2021, CRC mortality rose significantly in Eastern and Western SSA. In 2021, Southern SSA had the highest ASMR and fastest growth (EAPC = 1.63), while Western SSA had the lowest ASMR. The mortality in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are of particular concern. The region exhibited an overall upward trend in CRC mortality alongside increasing Socio-demographic index. Population growth was the primary driver of increasing mortality across the four subregions and 45 countries. Projections indicated that ASMR will rise in Central and Western SSA but decline in Eastern and Southern SSA by 2040. Conclusions: Population growth is a crucial factor driving the CRC mortality of women of childbearing age in SSA. Regional disparities reflected varying epidemiological transitions and healthcare capacities. Screening programs and cancer registries are key to reducing future burdens.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211335525002062Colorectal cancerGlobal burden diseaseWomen of childbearing ageSociodemographic IndexSub-Saharan Africa |
| spellingShingle | Jiefeng Zhao Daxing Miao Tao Yang Jiang Chen Xiangquan Lai Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa Preventive Medicine Reports Colorectal cancer Global burden disease Women of childbearing age Sociodemographic Index Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title | Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full | Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr | Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short | Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort | trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal cancer mortality among reproductive age women in sub saharan africa |
| topic | Colorectal cancer Global burden disease Women of childbearing age Sociodemographic Index Sub-Saharan Africa |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211335525002062 |
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