Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation
Abstract Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). T...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004745 |
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| author | Jianing Guo Xiaoning Xie Gunnar Myhre Drew Shindell Alf Kirkevåg Trond Iversen Bjørn H. Samset Zhengguo Shi Xinzhou Li Hui Sun Xiaodong Liu Yangang Liu |
| author_facet | Jianing Guo Xiaoning Xie Gunnar Myhre Drew Shindell Alf Kirkevåg Trond Iversen Bjørn H. Samset Zhengguo Shi Xinzhou Li Hui Sun Xiaodong Liu Yangang Liu |
| author_sort | Jianing Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi‐model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2‐45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non‐negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c61098232b2940018c7b82ac20576c6d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-c61098232b2940018c7b82ac20576c6d2025-08-20T01:59:22ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-11-011211n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004745Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer PrecipitationJianing Guo0Xiaoning Xie1Gunnar Myhre2Drew Shindell3Alf Kirkevåg4Trond Iversen5Bjørn H. Samset6Zhengguo Shi7Xinzhou Li8Hui Sun9Xiaodong Liu10Yangang Liu11SKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaSKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaCICERO ‐ Center for International Climate Research Oslo NorwayNicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USANorwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo NorwayNorwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo NorwayCICERO ‐ Center for International Climate Research Oslo NorwaySKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaSKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaSKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaSKLLQG Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an ChinaEnvironmental and Climate Sciences Department Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton NY USAAbstract Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi‐model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large‐scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2‐45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non‐negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004745 |
| spellingShingle | Jianing Guo Xiaoning Xie Gunnar Myhre Drew Shindell Alf Kirkevåg Trond Iversen Bjørn H. Samset Zhengguo Shi Xinzhou Li Hui Sun Xiaodong Liu Yangang Liu Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation Earth's Future |
| title | Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation |
| title_full | Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation |
| title_fullStr | Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation |
| title_short | Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation |
| title_sort | increased asian sulfate aerosol emissions remarkably enhance sahel summer precipitation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004745 |
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