Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania

Abstract Background The presence of a community effect in cluster randomized trials of malaria vector control interventions has led to the implementation of “buffer zones” around clusters to limit the potential for contamination between interventions. No consensus has been reached on how large these...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Charles Thickstun, Eliud Lukole, Jacklin F. Mosha, Alphaxard Manjurano, Immo Kleinschmidt, Franklin W. Mosha, Jacques Derek Charlwood, Mark Rowland, Ann Jolly, Alice Zwerling, Natacha Protopopoff, Manisha Kulkarni
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-06-01
Series:Malaria Journal
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-025-05438-y
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850102431611879424
author Charles Thickstun
Eliud Lukole
Jacklin F. Mosha
Alphaxard Manjurano
Immo Kleinschmidt
Franklin W. Mosha
Jacques Derek Charlwood
Mark Rowland
Ann Jolly
Alice Zwerling
Natacha Protopopoff
Manisha Kulkarni
author_facet Charles Thickstun
Eliud Lukole
Jacklin F. Mosha
Alphaxard Manjurano
Immo Kleinschmidt
Franklin W. Mosha
Jacques Derek Charlwood
Mark Rowland
Ann Jolly
Alice Zwerling
Natacha Protopopoff
Manisha Kulkarni
author_sort Charles Thickstun
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Background The presence of a community effect in cluster randomized trials of malaria vector control interventions has led to the implementation of “buffer zones” around clusters to limit the potential for contamination between interventions. No consensus has been reached on how large these buffers need to be to encapsulate the effect. Methods Nested within a phase-III cluster randomized malaria vector control trial in Northwest Tanzania, this study aims to determine the presence and spatial range of community effects from long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions on household-level malaria infection in trial clusters four months post-intervention. Effective spatial range estimates of intervention community effects were compared to the 300m buffer distance implemented to limit intervention spillover between clusters in the trial. Geographically-weighted adjusted odds of malaria infection in children aged 0.5–14 years were determined four months post community-level intervention with a randomized allocation comprising one of two LLIN products (OlysetTM LN: 1000mg/m2 permethrin or OlysetTM Plus LN: 400 + permethrin 800mg/m2) with either IRS (Actellic®300CS: 1000mg/m2 micro-encapsulated pirimiphos-methyl) or no IRS. Robust semivariances were calculated for each of 48 intervention clusters and fit to semivariogram models by Weighted Least Squares. Results 6440 children from 2785 households were included in the geographically-weighted logistic regression. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 45.9% in the study population. Twenty (20) clusters had significant residual effect ranges, 13 of which were fit to Sine Hole Effect models, indicating periodicity in the study area. Effective range estimates for the study area had a median value of 1210 m (IQR: 958–1691). Clusters with IRS had a higher median range value: 1535 m (IQR: 976–3398) than those without IRS: 1168m (IQR: 829–1504). Conclusions Significant semivariogram model range estimates extended beyond the trial buffer sizes by a median average of 868 m in LLIN intervention clusters and 1235 m for IRS clusters. This presents a contamination, or spillover, potential for all trialed intervention types that may reduce the statistical power to detect difference between trial arms. Future studies should consider the ranges of intervention effects and contamination potential between trial arms when designing buffer areas.
format Article
id doaj-art-c5a92ddde9364d9d8a9b080a7da76873
institution DOAJ
issn 1475-2875
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher BMC
record_format Article
series Malaria Journal
spelling doaj-art-c5a92ddde9364d9d8a9b080a7da768732025-08-20T02:39:45ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752025-06-0124111410.1186/s12936-025-05438-yInter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, TanzaniaCharles Thickstun0Eliud Lukole1Jacklin F. Mosha2Alphaxard Manjurano3Immo Kleinschmidt4Franklin W. Mosha5Jacques Derek Charlwood6Mark Rowland7Ann Jolly8Alice Zwerling9Natacha Protopopoff10Manisha Kulkarni11School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of OttawaDepartment of Parasitology, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza Medical Research CentreDepartment of Parasitology, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza Medical Research CentreDepartment of Parasitology, National Institute for Medical Research, Mwanza Medical Research CentreMRC International Statistics and Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Parasitology, Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University CollegeDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineSchool of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of OttawaSchool of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of OttawaDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineSchool of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of OttawaAbstract Background The presence of a community effect in cluster randomized trials of malaria vector control interventions has led to the implementation of “buffer zones” around clusters to limit the potential for contamination between interventions. No consensus has been reached on how large these buffers need to be to encapsulate the effect. Methods Nested within a phase-III cluster randomized malaria vector control trial in Northwest Tanzania, this study aims to determine the presence and spatial range of community effects from long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions on household-level malaria infection in trial clusters four months post-intervention. Effective spatial range estimates of intervention community effects were compared to the 300m buffer distance implemented to limit intervention spillover between clusters in the trial. Geographically-weighted adjusted odds of malaria infection in children aged 0.5–14 years were determined four months post community-level intervention with a randomized allocation comprising one of two LLIN products (OlysetTM LN: 1000mg/m2 permethrin or OlysetTM Plus LN: 400 + permethrin 800mg/m2) with either IRS (Actellic®300CS: 1000mg/m2 micro-encapsulated pirimiphos-methyl) or no IRS. Robust semivariances were calculated for each of 48 intervention clusters and fit to semivariogram models by Weighted Least Squares. Results 6440 children from 2785 households were included in the geographically-weighted logistic regression. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 45.9% in the study population. Twenty (20) clusters had significant residual effect ranges, 13 of which were fit to Sine Hole Effect models, indicating periodicity in the study area. Effective range estimates for the study area had a median value of 1210 m (IQR: 958–1691). Clusters with IRS had a higher median range value: 1535 m (IQR: 976–3398) than those without IRS: 1168m (IQR: 829–1504). Conclusions Significant semivariogram model range estimates extended beyond the trial buffer sizes by a median average of 868 m in LLIN intervention clusters and 1235 m for IRS clusters. This presents a contamination, or spillover, potential for all trialed intervention types that may reduce the statistical power to detect difference between trial arms. Future studies should consider the ranges of intervention effects and contamination potential between trial arms when designing buffer areas.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-025-05438-yMalariaCommunity effectBufferSemivarianceSpatial analysis
spellingShingle Charles Thickstun
Eliud Lukole
Jacklin F. Mosha
Alphaxard Manjurano
Immo Kleinschmidt
Franklin W. Mosha
Jacques Derek Charlwood
Mark Rowland
Ann Jolly
Alice Zwerling
Natacha Protopopoff
Manisha Kulkarni
Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
Malaria Journal
Malaria
Community effect
Buffer
Semivariance
Spatial analysis
title Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
title_full Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
title_fullStr Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
title_full_unstemmed Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
title_short Inter-cluster contamination: a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four-armed malaria trial in Muleba, Tanzania
title_sort inter cluster contamination a semivariance analysis of community effect ranges of malaria vector control interventions in a four armed malaria trial in muleba tanzania
topic Malaria
Community effect
Buffer
Semivariance
Spatial analysis
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-025-05438-y
work_keys_str_mv AT charlesthickstun interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT eliudlukole interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT jacklinfmosha interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT alphaxardmanjurano interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT immokleinschmidt interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT franklinwmosha interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT jacquesderekcharlwood interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT markrowland interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT annjolly interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT alicezwerling interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT natachaprotopopoff interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania
AT manishakulkarni interclustercontaminationasemivarianceanalysisofcommunityeffectrangesofmalariavectorcontrolinterventionsinafourarmedmalariatrialinmulebatanzania