Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA...
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Elsevier
2024-11-01
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| Series: | The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901 |
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| author | Shujin Fan Jin Xu Jinli Wu Li Yan Meng Ren |
| author_facet | Shujin Fan Jin Xu Jinli Wu Li Yan Meng Ren |
| author_sort | Shujin Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns. Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions. Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c5580d976c7f43e6ac31ca1cc7f222ab |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1760-4788 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging |
| spelling | doaj-art-c5580d976c7f43e6ac31ca1cc7f222ab2025-08-20T02:32:45ZengElsevierThe Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging1760-47882024-11-01281110040210.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019Shujin Fan0Jin Xu1Jinli Wu2Li Yan3Meng Ren4Department of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, China; The Third School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Fengxian Central Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, China; Corresponding author.Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns. Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions. Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901GBDLow physical activityType 2 diabetesPrevalenceGlobal |
| spellingShingle | Shujin Fan Jin Xu Jinli Wu Li Yan Meng Ren Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging GBD Low physical activity Type 2 diabetes Prevalence Global |
| title | Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal trends of type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050 a global burden of disease study 2019 |
| topic | GBD Low physical activity Type 2 diabetes Prevalence Global |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901 |
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