Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA...

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Main Authors: Shujin Fan, Jin Xu, Jinli Wu, Li Yan, Meng Ren
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-11-01
Series:The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901
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author Shujin Fan
Jin Xu
Jinli Wu
Li Yan
Meng Ren
author_facet Shujin Fan
Jin Xu
Jinli Wu
Li Yan
Meng Ren
author_sort Shujin Fan
collection DOAJ
description Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns. Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions. Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.
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series The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging
spelling doaj-art-c5580d976c7f43e6ac31ca1cc7f222ab2025-08-20T02:32:45ZengElsevierThe Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging1760-47882024-11-01281110040210.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019Shujin Fan0Jin Xu1Jinli Wu2Li Yan3Meng Ren4Department of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, China; The Third School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Fengxian Central Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University, Shanghai, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, ChinaDepartment of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, China; Corresponding author.Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM. Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns. Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions. Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901GBDLow physical activityType 2 diabetesPrevalenceGlobal
spellingShingle Shujin Fan
Jin Xu
Jinli Wu
Li Yan
Meng Ren
Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
The Journal of Nutrition, Health and Aging
GBD
Low physical activity
Type 2 diabetes
Prevalence
Global
title Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
title_full Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
title_short Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
title_sort spatiotemporal trends of type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050 a global burden of disease study 2019
topic GBD
Low physical activity
Type 2 diabetes
Prevalence
Global
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1279770724004901
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