Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution

Fire, whether wild or urban, depends on the triad of oxygen, fuel, and heat. Urban fires, although smaller in scale, have devastating impacts, as evidenced by the 2018 wildfire in Mati, Attica (Greece), which claimed 104 lives. The elderly and children are the most vulnerable due to mobility and cog...

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Main Authors: Constantina Kopitsa, Ioannis G. Tsoulos, Andreas Miltiadous, Vasileios Charilogis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Big Data and Cognitive Computing
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/9/6/142
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author Constantina Kopitsa
Ioannis G. Tsoulos
Andreas Miltiadous
Vasileios Charilogis
author_facet Constantina Kopitsa
Ioannis G. Tsoulos
Andreas Miltiadous
Vasileios Charilogis
author_sort Constantina Kopitsa
collection DOAJ
description Fire, whether wild or urban, depends on the triad of oxygen, fuel, and heat. Urban fires, although smaller in scale, have devastating impacts, as evidenced by the 2018 wildfire in Mati, Attica (Greece), which claimed 104 lives. The elderly and children are the most vulnerable due to mobility and cognitive limitations. This study applies Grammatical Evolution (GE), a machine learning method that generates interpretable classification rules to predict the consequences of urban fires. Using historical data (casualties, containment time, and meteorological/demographic parameters), GE produces classification rules in human-readable form. The rules achieve over 85% accuracy, revealing critical correlations. For example, high temperatures (>35 °C) combined with irregular building layouts exponentially increase fatality risks, while firefighter response time proves more critical than fire intensity itself. Applications include dynamic evacuation strategies (real-time adaptation), preventive urban planning (fire-resistant materials and green buffer zones), and targeted awareness campaigns for at-risk groups. Unlike “black-box” machine learning techniques, GE offers transparent human-readable rules, enabling firefighters and authorities to make rapid informed decisions. Future advancements could integrate real-time data (IoT sensors and satellites) and extend the methodology to other natural disasters. Protecting urban centers from fires is not only a technological challenge but also a moral imperative to safeguard human lives and societal cohesion.
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spelling doaj-art-c54f4e655f284c02b1f189ceb0ab566d2025-08-20T03:32:31ZengMDPI AGBig Data and Cognitive Computing2504-22892025-05-019614210.3390/bdcc9060142Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical EvolutionConstantina Kopitsa0Ioannis G. Tsoulos1Andreas Miltiadous2Vasileios Charilogis3Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Kostaki Artas, 47150 Artas, GreeceDepartment of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Kostaki Artas, 47150 Artas, GreeceDepartment of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Kostaki Artas, 47150 Artas, GreeceDepartment of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Ioannina, Kostaki Artas, 47150 Artas, GreeceFire, whether wild or urban, depends on the triad of oxygen, fuel, and heat. Urban fires, although smaller in scale, have devastating impacts, as evidenced by the 2018 wildfire in Mati, Attica (Greece), which claimed 104 lives. The elderly and children are the most vulnerable due to mobility and cognitive limitations. This study applies Grammatical Evolution (GE), a machine learning method that generates interpretable classification rules to predict the consequences of urban fires. Using historical data (casualties, containment time, and meteorological/demographic parameters), GE produces classification rules in human-readable form. The rules achieve over 85% accuracy, revealing critical correlations. For example, high temperatures (>35 °C) combined with irregular building layouts exponentially increase fatality risks, while firefighter response time proves more critical than fire intensity itself. Applications include dynamic evacuation strategies (real-time adaptation), preventive urban planning (fire-resistant materials and green buffer zones), and targeted awareness campaigns for at-risk groups. Unlike “black-box” machine learning techniques, GE offers transparent human-readable rules, enabling firefighters and authorities to make rapid informed decisions. Future advancements could integrate real-time data (IoT sensors and satellites) and extend the methodology to other natural disasters. Protecting urban centers from fires is not only a technological challenge but also a moral imperative to safeguard human lives and societal cohesion.https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/9/6/142urban firesmachine learningneural networksgenetic programminggrammatical evolution
spellingShingle Constantina Kopitsa
Ioannis G. Tsoulos
Andreas Miltiadous
Vasileios Charilogis
Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
Big Data and Cognitive Computing
urban fires
machine learning
neural networks
genetic programming
grammatical evolution
title Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
title_full Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
title_fullStr Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
title_short Predicting the Damage of Urban Fires with Grammatical Evolution
title_sort predicting the damage of urban fires with grammatical evolution
topic urban fires
machine learning
neural networks
genetic programming
grammatical evolution
url https://www.mdpi.com/2504-2289/9/6/142
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AT vasileioscharilogis predictingthedamageofurbanfireswithgrammaticalevolution