Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks
COVID-19 emerged in December 2019 and became a global threat, prompting heightened global surveillance from 2020 to 2022. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate and evolve, global surveillance has substantially reduced. The reduction in surveillance came after the introduction of vaccines worldwi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Institute of Sciences and Technology, University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Innovative Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences |
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| Online Access: | https://jiamcs.centre-univ-mila.dz/index.php/jiamcs/article/view/1920 |
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| _version_ | 1850071942017581056 |
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| author | Abdulaziz Mukhtar Esther Ncube Kailash Patidar |
| author_facet | Abdulaziz Mukhtar Esther Ncube Kailash Patidar |
| author_sort | Abdulaziz Mukhtar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
COVID-19 emerged in December 2019 and became a global threat, prompting heightened global surveillance from 2020 to 2022. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate and evolve, global surveillance has substantially reduced. The reduction in surveillance came after the introduction of vaccines worldwide. We formulated a mathematical model to investigate how incorporating vaccines impacts the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission. The study qualitatively analyzed the model and calculated the basic reproduction numbers ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$). We estimated the model's parameters by fitting the model to real COVID-19 case data and using maximum likelihood estimation. To determine which parameters have the greatest impact on the spread and transmission of disease, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The analysis revealed that the transmission rate $\beta$ is the most important factor responsible for the spread of COVID-19, while the vaccination rate $\nu$ has the most significant impact on controlling the disease. The numerical simulations showed that a high vaccination rate significantly reduces exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and hospitalized individuals, reducing the impact of the virus on the community. It is crucial to consider the rate of immunity loss, as neglecting it could negate the benefits of vaccination.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c53205a90d5b4cfabcaaddf02703b381 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2773-4196 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Sciences and Technology, University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, Mila |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Innovative Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-c53205a90d5b4cfabcaaddf02703b3812025-08-20T02:47:10ZengInstitute of Sciences and Technology, University Center Abdelhafid Boussouf, MilaJournal of Innovative Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences2773-41962025-07-015110.58205/jiamcs.v5i1.1920Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risksAbdulaziz Mukhtar0Esther Ncube1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6854-0973Kailash Patidar2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4738-637XUniversity of the Western CapeUniversity of the Western Cape University of the Western Cape COVID-19 emerged in December 2019 and became a global threat, prompting heightened global surveillance from 2020 to 2022. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate and evolve, global surveillance has substantially reduced. The reduction in surveillance came after the introduction of vaccines worldwide. We formulated a mathematical model to investigate how incorporating vaccines impacts the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission. The study qualitatively analyzed the model and calculated the basic reproduction numbers ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$). We estimated the model's parameters by fitting the model to real COVID-19 case data and using maximum likelihood estimation. To determine which parameters have the greatest impact on the spread and transmission of disease, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The analysis revealed that the transmission rate $\beta$ is the most important factor responsible for the spread of COVID-19, while the vaccination rate $\nu$ has the most significant impact on controlling the disease. The numerical simulations showed that a high vaccination rate significantly reduces exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and hospitalized individuals, reducing the impact of the virus on the community. It is crucial to consider the rate of immunity loss, as neglecting it could negate the benefits of vaccination. https://jiamcs.centre-univ-mila.dz/index.php/jiamcs/article/view/1920Differential system |
| spellingShingle | Abdulaziz Mukhtar Esther Ncube Kailash Patidar Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks Journal of Innovative Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences Differential system |
| title | Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| title_full | Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| title_fullStr | Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| title_short | Investigating the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| title_sort | investigating the impact of vaccination on covid 19 dynamics and resurgence risks |
| topic | Differential system |
| url | https://jiamcs.centre-univ-mila.dz/index.php/jiamcs/article/view/1920 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT abdulazizmukhtar investigatingtheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19dynamicsandresurgencerisks AT estherncube investigatingtheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19dynamicsandresurgencerisks AT kailashpatidar investigatingtheimpactofvaccinationoncovid19dynamicsandresurgencerisks |