Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate
Abstract Recent efforts to assess coastal compound surge and rainfall‐driven flooding hazard from tropical (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have intensified. However, challenges persist in gaining actionable insights into the changing magnitude and spatial variability of...
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| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005078 |
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| author | Ali Sarhadi Raphaël Rousseau‐Rizzi Kerry Emanuel |
| author_facet | Ali Sarhadi Raphaël Rousseau‐Rizzi Kerry Emanuel |
| author_sort | Ali Sarhadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recent efforts to assess coastal compound surge and rainfall‐driven flooding hazard from tropical (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have intensified. However, challenges persist in gaining actionable insights into the changing magnitude and spatial variability of these hazards. We employ a physics‐based hydrodynamic framework to numerically simulate compound flooding from TCs and ETCs in both current and future climates, focusing on the western side of Buzzards Bay in Massachusetts. Our approach leverages hydrodynamic models driven by extensive sets of synthetic TCs downscaled from CMIP6 climate models. We also perform a far less extensive analysis of ETCs using a previously produced event set, dynamically downscaled using the WRF model driven by a single CMIP5 model. This methodology quantifies how climate change may reshape the compound flooding hazard landscape in the study area. Our findings reveal a significant increase in TC‐induced compound flooding hazard due to evolving climatology and sea level rise (SLR). Although compound flooding induced by ETCs increases mostly in coastal areas due to SLR, inland areas exhibit almost no change, and some even show a decline in rainfall‐driven flooding from high‐frequency ETC events toward the end of the century compared to the current climate. Our methodology is transferable to vulnerable coastal regions, serving as a tool for adaptive measures in populated areas. It equips decision‐makers and stakeholders with the means to mitigate the destructive impacts of compound flooding arising from both current and future TCs, and shows how the same methodology might be applied to ETCs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c4a0bb3d7664422585298350b2fa3869 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-c4a0bb3d7664422585298350b2fa38692025-01-28T15:40:38ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772025-01-01131n/an/a10.1029/2024EF005078Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming ClimateAli Sarhadi0Raphaël Rousseau‐Rizzi1Kerry Emanuel2Lorenz Center Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USALorenz Center Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USALorenz Center Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USAAbstract Recent efforts to assess coastal compound surge and rainfall‐driven flooding hazard from tropical (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have intensified. However, challenges persist in gaining actionable insights into the changing magnitude and spatial variability of these hazards. We employ a physics‐based hydrodynamic framework to numerically simulate compound flooding from TCs and ETCs in both current and future climates, focusing on the western side of Buzzards Bay in Massachusetts. Our approach leverages hydrodynamic models driven by extensive sets of synthetic TCs downscaled from CMIP6 climate models. We also perform a far less extensive analysis of ETCs using a previously produced event set, dynamically downscaled using the WRF model driven by a single CMIP5 model. This methodology quantifies how climate change may reshape the compound flooding hazard landscape in the study area. Our findings reveal a significant increase in TC‐induced compound flooding hazard due to evolving climatology and sea level rise (SLR). Although compound flooding induced by ETCs increases mostly in coastal areas due to SLR, inland areas exhibit almost no change, and some even show a decline in rainfall‐driven flooding from high‐frequency ETC events toward the end of the century compared to the current climate. Our methodology is transferable to vulnerable coastal regions, serving as a tool for adaptive measures in populated areas. It equips decision‐makers and stakeholders with the means to mitigate the destructive impacts of compound flooding arising from both current and future TCs, and shows how the same methodology might be applied to ETCs.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005078compound floodingphysics‐based risk modelingtropical and extratropical cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Ali Sarhadi Raphaël Rousseau‐Rizzi Kerry Emanuel Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate Earth's Future compound flooding physics‐based risk modeling tropical and extratropical cyclones |
| title | Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate |
| title_full | Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate |
| title_fullStr | Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate |
| title_short | Physics‐Based Hazard Assessment of Compound Flooding From Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate |
| title_sort | physics based hazard assessment of compound flooding from tropical and extratropical cyclones in a warming climate |
| topic | compound flooding physics‐based risk modeling tropical and extratropical cyclones |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005078 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alisarhadi physicsbasedhazardassessmentofcompoundfloodingfromtropicalandextratropicalcyclonesinawarmingclimate AT raphaelrousseaurizzi physicsbasedhazardassessmentofcompoundfloodingfromtropicalandextratropicalcyclonesinawarmingclimate AT kerryemanuel physicsbasedhazardassessmentofcompoundfloodingfromtropicalandextratropicalcyclonesinawarmingclimate |