Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China

Abstract Understanding how lockdown, a strict epidemic prevention policy, affects people’s risk attitudes is an interesting and fundamental issue. Behavioural experiments constitute one of the mainstream methods for measuring such microscopic effects. However, since epidemics are emergent events, th...

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Main Authors: Lili Tan, Feng Yang, Xingwei Li, Xiaomin Zhang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer Nature 2025-05-01
Series:Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04901-0
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author Lili Tan
Feng Yang
Xingwei Li
Xiaomin Zhang
author_facet Lili Tan
Feng Yang
Xingwei Li
Xiaomin Zhang
author_sort Lili Tan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Understanding how lockdown, a strict epidemic prevention policy, affects people’s risk attitudes is an interesting and fundamental issue. Behavioural experiments constitute one of the mainstream methods for measuring such microscopic effects. However, since epidemics are emergent events, their occurrence time is almost unpredictable; thus, obtaining comparative data before and after the implementation of a lockdown is difficult. Fortunately, in this study, we obtained a pair of controlled experimental data before and after the lockdown policy was implemented from the bordering town of Gengma in Yunnan Province, China. In 2018, we conducted risk preference behaviour experiments in various regions of Yunnan Province, including one experiment involving 65 residents of Gengma County, which became our first round of experiments. In November 2020, Gengma was locked down because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Immediately after the lockdown was lifted, we conducted another risk preference experiment, recruiting 55 residents, 39 of whom also participated in the first round of experiments, and this became our second round of experiments. Thus, we can better analyse how strict epidemic prevention policies change people’s risk attitudes. We found that before the COVID-19 lockdown policy was implemented, the participants’ risk attitudes fit well with the fourfold risk attitudes predicted by the Prospect Theory (PT). However, after a 14-day lockdown, Gengma residents’ risk attitudes significantly changed. They became more risk seeking for moderate-probability gains and risk averse for moderate-probability losses, which is contrary to PT’s prediction and contrary to their risk attitudes before the lockdown. These findings may serve as important references for policies related to epidemic prevention, community management, social security, and more in the post-COVID-19 era.
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spelling doaj-art-c48e031a0b1f4b6eba9d782e4a333cbd2025-08-20T03:53:11ZengSpringer NatureHumanities & Social Sciences Communications2662-99922025-05-0112111310.1057/s41599-025-04901-0Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, ChinaLili Tan0Feng Yang1Xingwei Li2Xiaomin Zhang3School of Government, Yunnan UniversitySchool of Government, Yunnan UniversitySchool of Government, Yunnan UniversitySchool of Basic Medicine, Kunming Medical UniversityAbstract Understanding how lockdown, a strict epidemic prevention policy, affects people’s risk attitudes is an interesting and fundamental issue. Behavioural experiments constitute one of the mainstream methods for measuring such microscopic effects. However, since epidemics are emergent events, their occurrence time is almost unpredictable; thus, obtaining comparative data before and after the implementation of a lockdown is difficult. Fortunately, in this study, we obtained a pair of controlled experimental data before and after the lockdown policy was implemented from the bordering town of Gengma in Yunnan Province, China. In 2018, we conducted risk preference behaviour experiments in various regions of Yunnan Province, including one experiment involving 65 residents of Gengma County, which became our first round of experiments. In November 2020, Gengma was locked down because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Immediately after the lockdown was lifted, we conducted another risk preference experiment, recruiting 55 residents, 39 of whom also participated in the first round of experiments, and this became our second round of experiments. Thus, we can better analyse how strict epidemic prevention policies change people’s risk attitudes. We found that before the COVID-19 lockdown policy was implemented, the participants’ risk attitudes fit well with the fourfold risk attitudes predicted by the Prospect Theory (PT). However, after a 14-day lockdown, Gengma residents’ risk attitudes significantly changed. They became more risk seeking for moderate-probability gains and risk averse for moderate-probability losses, which is contrary to PT’s prediction and contrary to their risk attitudes before the lockdown. These findings may serve as important references for policies related to epidemic prevention, community management, social security, and more in the post-COVID-19 era.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04901-0
spellingShingle Lili Tan
Feng Yang
Xingwei Li
Xiaomin Zhang
Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
title Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
title_full Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
title_fullStr Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
title_full_unstemmed Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
title_short Does a strict COVID-19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes? Evidence from a bordering town, Gengma, in Yunnan Province, China
title_sort does a strict covid 19 lockdown policy change risk attitudes evidence from a bordering town gengma in yunnan province china
url https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04901-0
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