Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study
Objective: Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan prov...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | One Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424001666 |
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| author | Han Ni Haoyun Dai Xuewen Yang Jin Zhao Yuxi He Shanghui Yi Xiuqin Hong Wenting Zha Yuan Lv |
| author_facet | Han Ni Haoyun Dai Xuewen Yang Jin Zhao Yuxi He Shanghui Yi Xiuqin Hong Wenting Zha Yuan Lv |
| author_sort | Han Ni |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control. Methods: We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies. Results: The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10−8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10−12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c486102cdfa648e1ad27dfe32cf7aeaf |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2352-7714 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | One Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-c486102cdfa648e1ad27dfe32cf7aeaf2025-08-20T01:57:51ZengElsevierOne Health2352-77142024-12-011910084010.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100840Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling studyHan Ni0Haoyun Dai1Xuewen Yang2Jin Zhao3Yuxi He4Shanghui Yi5Xiuqin Hong6Wenting Zha7Yuan Lv8Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of ChinaChangsha Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410004, People's Republic of ChinaChangsha Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, Hunan 410004, People's Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of ChinaHunan Provincial People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410005, People's Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan 410000, People's Republic of China; Corresponding authors.Objective: Brucellosis has a considerable impact on human health and the economy in developing countries. In China, the biggest developing country, brucellosis shifted spread of the epidemic from northern to southern regions. Understanding the transmission characteristic of brucellosis on Hunan province, located in central China, is of great significance for successful control. Methods: We developed a multi-population and multi-route dynamic model (MPMRDM), which is an animal-human-environment coupled model. The model is an extension of the SEIR model, taking into account direct transmission and indirect transmission. We used the model to explore the spread of brucellosis and evaluate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies. Results: The animal-to-animal transmission rate was the highest at 5.14 × 10−8, while the environment-to-person transmission rate was the lowest at 9.49 × 10−12. The mean R0 was 1.51. The most effective intervention was taking personal protection, followed by shortening the infection period. Shortening the infection period combined with personal protection is the most effective two-combined intervention strategy. After any comprehensive intervention strategy was implemented, TAR dropped by 90% or more. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that animal transmission route is essential for controlling human brucellosis. Strengthening personal protection, early detection, and early treatment can effectively control the trend of brucellosis. These results can provide an important reference for optimizing brucellosis intervention plans.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424001666BrucellosisTransmission dynamic modelInterventionEnvironment |
| spellingShingle | Han Ni Haoyun Dai Xuewen Yang Jin Zhao Yuxi He Shanghui Yi Xiuqin Hong Wenting Zha Yuan Lv Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study One Health Brucellosis Transmission dynamic model Intervention Environment |
| title | Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study |
| title_full | Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study |
| title_short | Effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries: A dynamic modelling study |
| title_sort | effective intervention of brucellosis prevention in developing countries a dynamic modelling study |
| topic | Brucellosis Transmission dynamic model Intervention Environment |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424001666 |
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