Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms

Exploring the role of armed conflict in progress toward Sustainable Development Goals: Global patterns, regional differences, and driving mechanisms

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a solemn commitment by United Nations member states, but achieving them faces numerous challenges, particularly armed conflicts. Here, we analyzed the impact of armed conflict on SDG progress and its driving mechanism through causal inference method...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Di Wang, Zhenci Xu, Unai Pascual, Lei Liu, Waqar Ahmad, Dong Jiang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-12-01
Series:Geography and Sustainability
Subjects:
Geopolitical conflict
SDGs
Causal inference
Middle East
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266668392500094X
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a solemn commitment by United Nations member states, but achieving them faces numerous challenges, particularly armed conflicts. Here, we analyzed the impact of armed conflict on SDG progress and its driving mechanism through causal inference methods and machine learning technique. The results show that between 2000 and 2021, armed conflicts slowed overall SDG progress by 3.43 %, equivalent to a setback of 18 years. The Middle East was the most affected region, with a 6.10 % slowdown in progress. The impact of different types of conflict varies across specific goals: interstate conflicts primarily affect SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), while intrastate conflicts have a larger impact on SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure). Additionally, SDG 15 (Life on Land) is severely affected by both types of conflict, with long-term consequences. As armed conflicts increase, the development progress would regress rapidly in a non-linear manner. To achieve the SDGs by 2030, it is crucial not only to prevent conflicts but also to proactively address and mitigate their impacts on development.
ISSN:2666-6839

Similar Items