A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes
Abstract In this work, a simple physics-informed stochastic earthquake catalog simulator is presented for the modeling of long memory on a single fault (or crustal volume). The simulator combines the fundamental statistical laws of seismology (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter law and the exponential dist...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02608-3 |
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| author | Simone Barani Matteo Taroni Davide Zaccagnino Pietro Artale Harris Giuseppe Petrillo |
| author_facet | Simone Barani Matteo Taroni Davide Zaccagnino Pietro Artale Harris Giuseppe Petrillo |
| author_sort | Simone Barani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this work, a simple physics-informed stochastic earthquake catalog simulator is presented for the modeling of long memory on a single fault (or crustal volume). The simulator combines the fundamental statistical laws of seismology (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter law and the exponential distribution of inter-event times of spontaneous events) with two physical assumptions: 1) earthquake magnitudes are constrained by the amount of potential energy accumulated within the crustal volume at a given time, 2) existence of an upper boundary for stress on the fault. The consequence is a deviation from the conventional exponential inter-event distribution. We analyze a set of simulated catalogs to inspect long memory. Our results show that, depending on the relative proportion of energy accumulation and release, catalogs can exhibit complex patterns and long memory behavior. Despite its simplicity, our simulator can replicate the key features of seismic activity observed in real data, thus enabling a consistent physical interpretation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c368f25e72bc455a9ffe3487f725c769 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-c368f25e72bc455a9ffe3487f725c7692025-08-24T11:52:31ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-08-016111110.1038/s43247-025-02608-3A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakesSimone Barani0Matteo Taroni1Davide Zaccagnino2Pietro Artale Harris3Giuseppe Petrillo4Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell’Ambiente e della Vita, Università degli Studi di GenovaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaInstitute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaEarth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological UniversityAbstract In this work, a simple physics-informed stochastic earthquake catalog simulator is presented for the modeling of long memory on a single fault (or crustal volume). The simulator combines the fundamental statistical laws of seismology (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter law and the exponential distribution of inter-event times of spontaneous events) with two physical assumptions: 1) earthquake magnitudes are constrained by the amount of potential energy accumulated within the crustal volume at a given time, 2) existence of an upper boundary for stress on the fault. The consequence is a deviation from the conventional exponential inter-event distribution. We analyze a set of simulated catalogs to inspect long memory. Our results show that, depending on the relative proportion of energy accumulation and release, catalogs can exhibit complex patterns and long memory behavior. Despite its simplicity, our simulator can replicate the key features of seismic activity observed in real data, thus enabling a consistent physical interpretation.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02608-3 |
| spellingShingle | Simone Barani Matteo Taroni Davide Zaccagnino Pietro Artale Harris Giuseppe Petrillo A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes |
| title_full | A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes |
| title_fullStr | A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes |
| title_short | A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes |
| title_sort | physics informed stochastic model for the long term correlation of earthquakes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02608-3 |
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