Spring frost risk in a changing climate
While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2008-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033955 |
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| Summary: | While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic‐crossing properties of a coupled temperature‐phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk). |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |