The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China's economic and social development. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic on the economy is vital for formulating scientifically grounded epidemic management policies. This study assesses the economic losses and influ...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Global Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17441692.2024.2341403 |
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| author | Zhi-Nan Lu Zhiyuan Gao Yu Hao |
| author_facet | Zhi-Nan Lu Zhiyuan Gao Yu Hao |
| author_sort | Zhi-Nan Lu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China's economic and social development. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic on the economy is vital for formulating scientifically grounded epidemic management policies. This study assesses the economic losses and influence paths of a large-scale epidemic in China. We proposed three COVID-19 scenarios – serious, normal, and mild – to evaluate the direct economic impact on China's GDP from a demand perspective. An input-output model was used to estimate the indirect impact. Our findings show that China's GDP could lose 94,206, 75,365, and 56,524 hundred million yuan under serious, normal, and mild scenarios, respectively, with corresponding GDP decline rates of 9.27%, 7.42%, and 5.56%. Under the normal scenario, indirect economic loss and total loss are projected at 75,364 and 489,386 hundred million yuan, respectively. Additionally, the pandemic led to a reduction in carbon emissions: direct emissions decreased by 1,218.69 million tons, indirect emissions by 9,594.32 million tons, and total emissions by 10,813.01 million tons across various industries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of the pandemic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c2dd3e75264b49cb8929a1512fe91eec |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1744-1692 1744-1706 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-c2dd3e75264b49cb8929a1512fe91eec2025-08-20T02:30:34ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGlobal Public Health1744-16921744-17062024-12-0119110.1080/17441692.2024.2341403The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysisZhi-Nan Lu0Zhiyuan Gao1Yu Hao2Interventional Center of Valvular Heart Disease, Capital Medical University, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China's economic and social development. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of the epidemic on the economy is vital for formulating scientifically grounded epidemic management policies. This study assesses the economic losses and influence paths of a large-scale epidemic in China. We proposed three COVID-19 scenarios – serious, normal, and mild – to evaluate the direct economic impact on China's GDP from a demand perspective. An input-output model was used to estimate the indirect impact. Our findings show that China's GDP could lose 94,206, 75,365, and 56,524 hundred million yuan under serious, normal, and mild scenarios, respectively, with corresponding GDP decline rates of 9.27%, 7.42%, and 5.56%. Under the normal scenario, indirect economic loss and total loss are projected at 75,364 and 489,386 hundred million yuan, respectively. Additionally, the pandemic led to a reduction in carbon emissions: direct emissions decreased by 1,218.69 million tons, indirect emissions by 9,594.32 million tons, and total emissions by 10,813.01 million tons across various industries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic and environmental impacts of the pandemic.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17441692.2024.2341403Epidemicinfluence patheconomic lossevaluationChina |
| spellingShingle | Zhi-Nan Lu Zhiyuan Gao Yu Hao The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis Global Public Health Epidemic influence path economic loss evaluation China |
| title | The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis |
| title_full | The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis |
| title_fullStr | The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis |
| title_short | The economic consequence of large-scale epidemic outbreak: The path and loss evaluation of COVID-19 in China based on input-output analysis |
| title_sort | economic consequence of large scale epidemic outbreak the path and loss evaluation of covid 19 in china based on input output analysis |
| topic | Epidemic influence path economic loss evaluation China |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17441692.2024.2341403 |
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