Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation
Abstract Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological e...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70003 |
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| author | Weiwei Ran Jiajia Chen Yuanqi Zhao Ni Zhang Guimei Luo Zhibing Zhao Yuehua Song |
| author_facet | Weiwei Ran Jiajia Chen Yuanqi Zhao Ni Zhang Guimei Luo Zhibing Zhao Yuehua Song |
| author_sort | Weiwei Ran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5‐8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1‐2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c2be46a1503049b6a76d20010ee2a2d0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-c2be46a1503049b6a76d20010ee2a2d02025-08-20T03:13:48ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582024-07-01147n/an/a10.1002/ece3.70003Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservationWeiwei Ran0Jiajia Chen1Yuanqi Zhao2Ni Zhang3Guimei Luo4Zhibing Zhao5Yuehua Song6School of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaSchool of Karst Science Guizhou Normal University Guiyang ChinaAbstract Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5‐8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1‐2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70003biodiversityglobal climate changehabitat suitabilitylong‐term changesmacroecologyspecies distribution models |
| spellingShingle | Weiwei Ran Jiajia Chen Yuanqi Zhao Ni Zhang Guimei Luo Zhibing Zhao Yuehua Song Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation Ecology and Evolution biodiversity global climate change habitat suitability long‐term changes macroecology species distribution models |
| title | Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| title_full | Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| title_fullStr | Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| title_short | Global climate change‐driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| title_sort | global climate change driven impacts on the asian distribution of limassolla leafhoppers with implications for biological and environmental conservation |
| topic | biodiversity global climate change habitat suitability long‐term changes macroecology species distribution models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70003 |
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