Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study
Objective To characterise the optimal targeting of age and risk groups for COVID-19 vaccines.Design Motivated by policies in Japan and elsewhere, we consider rollouts that target a mix of age and risk groups when distributing the vaccines. We identify the optimal group mix for three policy objective...
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| Format: | Article |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2022-12-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/12/e061139.full |
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| author | Ryota Nakamura Yoko Ibuka Hongming Wang |
| author_facet | Ryota Nakamura Yoko Ibuka Hongming Wang |
| author_sort | Ryota Nakamura |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective To characterise the optimal targeting of age and risk groups for COVID-19 vaccines.Design Motivated by policies in Japan and elsewhere, we consider rollouts that target a mix of age and risk groups when distributing the vaccines. We identify the optimal group mix for three policy objectives: reducing deaths, reducing cases and reducing severe cases.Setting Japan, a country where the rollout occurred over multiple stages targeting a mix of age and risk groups in each stage.Primary outcomes We use official statistics on COVID-19 deaths to quantify the virus transmission patterns in Japan. We then search over all possible group mix across rollout stages to identify the optimal strategies under different policy objectives and virus and vaccination conditions.Results Low-risk young adults can be targeted together with the high-risk population and the elderly to optimally reduce deaths, cases and severe cases under high virus transmissibility. Compared with targeting the elderly or the high-risk population only, applying optimal group mix can further reduce deaths and severe cases by over 60%. High-efficacy vaccines can mitigate the health loss under suboptimal targeting in the rollout.Conclusions Mixing age and risk groups outperforms targeting individual groups separately, and optimising the group mix can substantially increase the health benefits of vaccines. Additional policy measures boosting vaccine efficacy are necessary under outbreaks of transmissible variants. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c222aa0331aa42db84c2030d11d13bc5 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-c222aa0331aa42db84c2030d11d13bc52025-08-20T02:57:05ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552022-12-01121210.1136/bmjopen-2022-061139Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling studyRyota Nakamura0Yoko Ibuka1Hongming Wang2Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, JapanDepartment of Economics, Keio University, Minato-ku, Tokyo, JapanHitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi, JapanObjective To characterise the optimal targeting of age and risk groups for COVID-19 vaccines.Design Motivated by policies in Japan and elsewhere, we consider rollouts that target a mix of age and risk groups when distributing the vaccines. We identify the optimal group mix for three policy objectives: reducing deaths, reducing cases and reducing severe cases.Setting Japan, a country where the rollout occurred over multiple stages targeting a mix of age and risk groups in each stage.Primary outcomes We use official statistics on COVID-19 deaths to quantify the virus transmission patterns in Japan. We then search over all possible group mix across rollout stages to identify the optimal strategies under different policy objectives and virus and vaccination conditions.Results Low-risk young adults can be targeted together with the high-risk population and the elderly to optimally reduce deaths, cases and severe cases under high virus transmissibility. Compared with targeting the elderly or the high-risk population only, applying optimal group mix can further reduce deaths and severe cases by over 60%. High-efficacy vaccines can mitigate the health loss under suboptimal targeting in the rollout.Conclusions Mixing age and risk groups outperforms targeting individual groups separately, and optimising the group mix can substantially increase the health benefits of vaccines. Additional policy measures boosting vaccine efficacy are necessary under outbreaks of transmissible variants.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/12/e061139.full |
| spellingShingle | Ryota Nakamura Yoko Ibuka Hongming Wang Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study BMJ Open |
| title | Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study |
| title_full | Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study |
| title_short | Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: a modelling study |
| title_sort | mixing age and risk groups for accessing covid 19 vaccines a modelling study |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/12/e061139.full |
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