Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway
[Objective] Under the “dual carbon” goals, China faces critical challenges from resource constraints and emerging solid waste disposal problems caused by large-scale renewable energy transition. Thus, predicting the volume of the photovoltaic (PV) solid waste and the recycling potential of associate...
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Science Press, PR China
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Ziyuan Kexue |
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| Online Access: | https://www.resci.cn/fileup/1007-7588/PDF/1750126943278-1800083534.pdf |
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| author | ZHANG Tianyu, WEI Kexin, DONG Huijuan |
| author_facet | ZHANG Tianyu, WEI Kexin, DONG Huijuan |
| author_sort | ZHANG Tianyu, WEI Kexin, DONG Huijuan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | [Objective] Under the “dual carbon” goals, China faces critical challenges from resource constraints and emerging solid waste disposal problems caused by large-scale renewable energy transition. Thus, predicting the volume of the photovoltaic (PV) solid waste and the recycling potential of associated metals is crucial for the sustainable development in the energy-resource-environment nexus. [Methods] Weibull distribution and scenario analysis methods were integrated to predict the decommissioning volume of the PV modules from power system transition under China’s carbon neutrality goals (2025-2060). Additionally, the scrap and recycling volumes of seven associated metals, such as silver and tellurium, were quantified under different decommissioning modes and technological development scenarios. [Results] (1) From 2025 to 2060, under the early decommissioning mode, China’s cumulative decommissioned and newly installed PV capacities will be 1144 GW and 7591 GW, respectively, exceeding the conventional decommissioning mode by 46% and 5%, respectively. (2) Under different PV market development scenarios, the cumulative scrap volume of associated metals could increase by 9% to 54% compared with the conventional mode. (3) In the conservative scenario, the recycling volumes of all seven associated metals would exceed the demand for PV power generation before 2060. In both moderate and progressive technological scenarios, the recycling volume of silver would continue to exceed its demand. However, even with recycling rates reaching the highest levels by 2030, the recycling volumes of tellurium, cadmium, gallium, selenium, and indium could only meet 18%, 44%, 23%, 14%, and 9% of their respective demands. [Conclusion] Enhancing the operational stability of PV modules, establishing a recycling system for PV solid waste, and maintaining the dominant position of crystalline silicon in PV market will contribute to the security of critical mineral resources for power system transition under China’s “dual carbon” goals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c1d88e710f7441bfb0c0452a8132e27b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1007-7588 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Science Press, PR China |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ziyuan Kexue |
| spelling | doaj-art-c1d88e710f7441bfb0c0452a8132e27b2025-08-20T02:07:12ZzhoScience Press, PR ChinaZiyuan Kexue1007-75882025-05-014751002101510.18402/resci.2025.05.08Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathwayZHANG Tianyu, WEI Kexin, DONG Huijuan01. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;2. Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Solid Waste Treatment and Resource Recovery, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China[Objective] Under the “dual carbon” goals, China faces critical challenges from resource constraints and emerging solid waste disposal problems caused by large-scale renewable energy transition. Thus, predicting the volume of the photovoltaic (PV) solid waste and the recycling potential of associated metals is crucial for the sustainable development in the energy-resource-environment nexus. [Methods] Weibull distribution and scenario analysis methods were integrated to predict the decommissioning volume of the PV modules from power system transition under China’s carbon neutrality goals (2025-2060). Additionally, the scrap and recycling volumes of seven associated metals, such as silver and tellurium, were quantified under different decommissioning modes and technological development scenarios. [Results] (1) From 2025 to 2060, under the early decommissioning mode, China’s cumulative decommissioned and newly installed PV capacities will be 1144 GW and 7591 GW, respectively, exceeding the conventional decommissioning mode by 46% and 5%, respectively. (2) Under different PV market development scenarios, the cumulative scrap volume of associated metals could increase by 9% to 54% compared with the conventional mode. (3) In the conservative scenario, the recycling volumes of all seven associated metals would exceed the demand for PV power generation before 2060. In both moderate and progressive technological scenarios, the recycling volume of silver would continue to exceed its demand. However, even with recycling rates reaching the highest levels by 2030, the recycling volumes of tellurium, cadmium, gallium, selenium, and indium could only meet 18%, 44%, 23%, 14%, and 9% of their respective demands. [Conclusion] Enhancing the operational stability of PV modules, establishing a recycling system for PV solid waste, and maintaining the dominant position of crystalline silicon in PV market will contribute to the security of critical mineral resources for power system transition under China’s “dual carbon” goals.https://www.resci.cn/fileup/1007-7588/PDF/1750126943278-1800083534.pdfphotovoltaic power generation|solid waste|associated metals|weibull distribution|decommissioning mode|sub-technology market share|carbon neutrality pathway|china |
| spellingShingle | ZHANG Tianyu, WEI Kexin, DONG Huijuan Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway Ziyuan Kexue photovoltaic power generation|solid waste|associated metals|weibull distribution|decommissioning mode|sub-technology market share|carbon neutrality pathway|china |
| title | Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| title_full | Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| title_short | Prediction of China’s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by-product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| title_sort | prediction of china s photovoltaic waste volume and associated by product metals recycling potential under carbon neutrality pathway |
| topic | photovoltaic power generation|solid waste|associated metals|weibull distribution|decommissioning mode|sub-technology market share|carbon neutrality pathway|china |
| url | https://www.resci.cn/fileup/1007-7588/PDF/1750126943278-1800083534.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangtianyuweikexindonghuijuan predictionofchinasphotovoltaicwastevolumeandassociatedbyproductmetalsrecyclingpotentialundercarbonneutralitypathway |