Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
Background The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2021-12-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full |
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| author | Xiaoqi Zhou Yan Guo Mei Yang Yaqiong Yan Anshu Li Gengchen Xie Yanhui Pang Qiman Jin Juan Dai Xinghua Liu |
| author_facet | Xiaoqi Zhou Yan Guo Mei Yang Yaqiong Yan Anshu Li Gengchen Xie Yanhui Pang Qiman Jin Juan Dai Xinghua Liu |
| author_sort | Xiaoqi Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case series reported to the Municipal Notifiable Disease Report System of Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020 from 17 communities were collected. Cases from healthcare workers (HW) and from community members (CM) were distinguished by documented occupations. Overall spatial and temporal relationships between HW and CM COVID-19 cases were visualised. The CHC model was then simulated. The turning point separating phase 1 and phase 2 was determined using a quadratic model. For phases 1 and 2, linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between HW and CM COVID-19 cases.Results The spatial and temporal distributions of COVID-19 cases between HWs and CMs were closely correlated. The turning point was 36.85±18.37 (range 15–70). The linear model fitted well for phase 1 (mean R2=0.98) and phase 2 (mean R2=0.93). In phase 1, the estimated α^s were positive (from 18.03 to 94.99), with smaller β^s (from 2.98 to 15.14); in phase 2, the estimated α^s were negative (from −4.22 to −81.87), with larger β^s (from 5.37 to 78.12).Conclusion Transmission of COVID-19 from the community to healthcare agencies and back to the community was confirmed in Wuhan. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals and among HWs are crucial and warrant further attention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c1c8de78c0e244f2be259dffd4b5185f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-c1c8de78c0e244f2be259dffd4b5185f2025-08-20T01:59:16ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-12-01111210.1136/bmjopen-2021-053068Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, ChinaXiaoqi Zhou0Yan Guo1Mei Yang2Yaqiong Yan3Anshu Li4Gengchen Xie5Yanhui Pang6Qiman Jin7Juan Dai8Xinghua Liu9Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, ChinaInstitute of Biomedical Research and College of Life Sciences, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng, People`s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Hematology, Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Information Center, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBackground The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case series reported to the Municipal Notifiable Disease Report System of Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020 from 17 communities were collected. Cases from healthcare workers (HW) and from community members (CM) were distinguished by documented occupations. Overall spatial and temporal relationships between HW and CM COVID-19 cases were visualised. The CHC model was then simulated. The turning point separating phase 1 and phase 2 was determined using a quadratic model. For phases 1 and 2, linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between HW and CM COVID-19 cases.Results The spatial and temporal distributions of COVID-19 cases between HWs and CMs were closely correlated. The turning point was 36.85±18.37 (range 15–70). The linear model fitted well for phase 1 (mean R2=0.98) and phase 2 (mean R2=0.93). In phase 1, the estimated α^s were positive (from 18.03 to 94.99), with smaller β^s (from 2.98 to 15.14); in phase 2, the estimated α^s were negative (from −4.22 to −81.87), with larger β^s (from 5.37 to 78.12).Conclusion Transmission of COVID-19 from the community to healthcare agencies and back to the community was confirmed in Wuhan. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals and among HWs are crucial and warrant further attention.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoqi Zhou Yan Guo Mei Yang Yaqiong Yan Anshu Li Gengchen Xie Yanhui Pang Qiman Jin Juan Dai Xinghua Liu Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China BMJ Open |
| title | Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China |
| title_full | Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China |
| title_fullStr | Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China |
| title_short | Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China |
| title_sort | transmission of covid 19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community a retrospective study of data from wuhan china |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full |
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