Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China

Background The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case...

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Main Authors: Xiaoqi Zhou, Yan Guo, Mei Yang, Yaqiong Yan, Anshu Li, Gengchen Xie, Yanhui Pang, Qiman Jin, Juan Dai, Xinghua Liu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2021-12-01
Series:BMJ Open
Online Access:https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full
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author Xiaoqi Zhou
Yan Guo
Mei Yang
Yaqiong Yan
Anshu Li
Gengchen Xie
Yanhui Pang
Qiman Jin
Juan Dai
Xinghua Liu
author_facet Xiaoqi Zhou
Yan Guo
Mei Yang
Yaqiong Yan
Anshu Li
Gengchen Xie
Yanhui Pang
Qiman Jin
Juan Dai
Xinghua Liu
author_sort Xiaoqi Zhou
collection DOAJ
description Background The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case series reported to the Municipal Notifiable Disease Report System of Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020 from 17 communities were collected. Cases from healthcare workers (HW) and from community members (CM) were distinguished by documented occupations. Overall spatial and temporal relationships between HW and CM COVID-19 cases were visualised. The CHC model was then simulated. The turning point separating phase 1 and phase 2 was determined using a quadratic model. For phases 1 and 2, linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between HW and CM COVID-19 cases.Results The spatial and temporal distributions of COVID-19 cases between HWs and CMs were closely correlated. The turning point was 36.85±18.37 (range 15–70). The linear model fitted well for phase 1 (mean R2=0.98) and phase 2 (mean R2=0.93). In phase 1, the estimated α^s were positive (from 18.03 to 94.99), with smaller β^s (from 2.98 to 15.14); in phase 2, the estimated α^s were negative (from −4.22 to −81.87), with larger β^s (from 5.37 to 78.12).Conclusion Transmission of COVID-19 from the community to healthcare agencies and back to the community was confirmed in Wuhan. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals and among HWs are crucial and warrant further attention.
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spelling doaj-art-c1c8de78c0e244f2be259dffd4b5185f2025-08-20T01:59:16ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552021-12-01111210.1136/bmjopen-2021-053068Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, ChinaXiaoqi Zhou0Yan Guo1Mei Yang2Yaqiong Yan3Anshu Li4Gengchen Xie5Yanhui Pang6Qiman Jin7Juan Dai8Xinghua Liu9Department of Radiology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, ChinaInstitute of Biomedical Research and College of Life Sciences, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng, People`s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Hematology, Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Information Center, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaChronic Noncommunicable Diseases Control and Prevention, Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBackground The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.Methods We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case series reported to the Municipal Notifiable Disease Report System of Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020 from 17 communities were collected. Cases from healthcare workers (HW) and from community members (CM) were distinguished by documented occupations. Overall spatial and temporal relationships between HW and CM COVID-19 cases were visualised. The CHC model was then simulated. The turning point separating phase 1 and phase 2 was determined using a quadratic model. For phases 1 and 2, linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between HW and CM COVID-19 cases.Results The spatial and temporal distributions of COVID-19 cases between HWs and CMs were closely correlated. The turning point was 36.85±18.37 (range 15–70). The linear model fitted well for phase 1 (mean R2=0.98) and phase 2 (mean R2=0.93). In phase 1, the estimated α^s were positive (from 18.03 to 94.99), with smaller β^s (from 2.98 to 15.14); in phase 2, the estimated α^s were negative (from −4.22 to −81.87), with larger β^s (from 5.37 to 78.12).Conclusion Transmission of COVID-19 from the community to healthcare agencies and back to the community was confirmed in Wuhan. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals and among HWs are crucial and warrant further attention.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full
spellingShingle Xiaoqi Zhou
Yan Guo
Mei Yang
Yaqiong Yan
Anshu Li
Gengchen Xie
Yanhui Pang
Qiman Jin
Juan Dai
Xinghua Liu
Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
BMJ Open
title Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
title_full Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
title_fullStr Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
title_full_unstemmed Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
title_short Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China
title_sort transmission of covid 19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community a retrospective study of data from wuhan china
url https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/11/12/e053068.full
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