The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model
Abstract Global climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have become significant challenges requiring urgent solutions. As an energy-intensive sector, the low-carbon transformation of the civil aviation industry plays a critical role in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. In this study, taking...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Energy Informatics |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00542-4 |
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| author | Ziruo Jia Junnan Shen |
| author_facet | Ziruo Jia Junnan Shen |
| author_sort | Ziruo Jia |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have become significant challenges requiring urgent solutions. As an energy-intensive sector, the low-carbon transformation of the civil aviation industry plays a critical role in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. In this study, taking China’s civil aviation industry as a case study, a multi-scenario dynamic coupling model is constructed based on the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model. Using historical data from 2000 to 2024, carbon emissions from 2025 to 2060 are quantitatively simulated and the dynamic feedback mechanisms among demand, energy, technology, and policy modules are systematically analyzed. The results indicate that under dual policy and technological drivers, especially in the scenarios of low-carbon policy and technological progress, carbon emissions in 2050 could be reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline scenario. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating precise low-carbon policies, optimizing the energy structure of civil aviation, and promoting the research and development of new aircraft. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c17ff1da313c41dcaf65052eede264e2 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2520-8942 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Informatics |
| spelling | doaj-art-c17ff1da313c41dcaf65052eede264e22025-08-20T03:21:06ZengSpringerOpenEnergy Informatics2520-89422025-06-018111610.1186/s42162-025-00542-4The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP modelZiruo Jia0Junnan Shen1College of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of ChinaCollege of Transportation Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of ChinaAbstract Global climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have become significant challenges requiring urgent solutions. As an energy-intensive sector, the low-carbon transformation of the civil aviation industry plays a critical role in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. In this study, taking China’s civil aviation industry as a case study, a multi-scenario dynamic coupling model is constructed based on the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model. Using historical data from 2000 to 2024, carbon emissions from 2025 to 2060 are quantitatively simulated and the dynamic feedback mechanisms among demand, energy, technology, and policy modules are systematically analyzed. The results indicate that under dual policy and technological drivers, especially in the scenarios of low-carbon policy and technological progress, carbon emissions in 2050 could be reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline scenario. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating precise low-carbon policies, optimizing the energy structure of civil aviation, and promoting the research and development of new aircraft.https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00542-4Carbon emissionsLEAP modelScenario forecastingEmission reduction pathways |
| spellingShingle | Ziruo Jia Junnan Shen The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model Energy Informatics Carbon emissions LEAP model Scenario forecasting Emission reduction pathways |
| title | The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model |
| title_full | The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model |
| title_fullStr | The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model |
| title_short | The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model |
| title_sort | low carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the leap model |
| topic | Carbon emissions LEAP model Scenario forecasting Emission reduction pathways |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-025-00542-4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ziruojia thelowcarbondevelopmentpathofthecivilaviationindustrybasedontheleapmodel AT junnanshen thelowcarbondevelopmentpathofthecivilaviationindustrybasedontheleapmodel AT ziruojia lowcarbondevelopmentpathofthecivilaviationindustrybasedontheleapmodel AT junnanshen lowcarbondevelopmentpathofthecivilaviationindustrybasedontheleapmodel |