Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States

Quantifying how hurricanes disrupt educational attainment is essential to evaluating the burden of climate-related disasters. Here, we examine the association between hurricane-force tropical cyclones and educational attainment among elementary and middle school students in all affected areas in the...

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Main Authors: Gabriella Y Meltzer, G Brooke Anderson, Xicheng Xie, Joan A Casey, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L Bell, Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne, Jared Fox, Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Robbie M Parks
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Environmental Research: Health
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adb32b
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author Gabriella Y Meltzer
G Brooke Anderson
Xicheng Xie
Joan A Casey
Joel Schwartz
Michelle L Bell
Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne
Jared Fox
Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
Robbie M Parks
author_facet Gabriella Y Meltzer
G Brooke Anderson
Xicheng Xie
Joan A Casey
Joel Schwartz
Michelle L Bell
Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne
Jared Fox
Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
Robbie M Parks
author_sort Gabriella Y Meltzer
collection DOAJ
description Quantifying how hurricanes disrupt educational attainment is essential to evaluating the burden of climate-related disasters. Here, we examine the association between hurricane-force tropical cyclones and educational attainment among elementary and middle school students in all affected areas in the United States during the 2008/2009–2017/2018 school years. Educational performance was based on county-level average standardized test scores in math and reading/language arts (RLAs). Hurricane-force tropical cyclone-exposed counties were those that experienced a sustained maximal wind speed ⩾64 knots. We estimated the association between hurricane-force tropical cyclone exposure and long-term test scores using a Bayesian hierarchical linear model, accounting for time-varying covariates at the county and grade cohort level. For hurricane-exposed counties, compared with the rest of the state, there were better test scores in Florida in math ( β = 0.14; 95% CrI: 0.02, 0.26; PP[ β > 0] = 99.0%) and RLA ( β = 0.11; 95% CrI: 0.02, 0.22; PP[ β > 0] = 99.2%), and worse math scores in North Carolina ( β = −0.16; 95% CrI: −0.29, −0.03; PP[ β < 0] = 99.4%). Grade cohorts with more racialized and minoritized (e.g. Black, Hispanic, Indigenous) and socioeconomically disadvantaged students tended to have lower test scores, while grade cohorts with greater shares of students racialized as Asian and counties with more college-educated adults tended to have higher scores regardless of hurricane exposure. Disaster preparedness must maximize resilience to climate-related stressors’ impacts on academic achievement, especially for vulnerable populations.
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spelling doaj-art-c0cf03ae5edf43c2bf0b0ca55bc144d22025-08-20T02:17:46ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Health2752-53092025-01-013202500310.1088/2752-5309/adb32bDisruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United StatesGabriella Y Meltzer0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6885-9730G Brooke Anderson1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5012-9035Xicheng Xie2Joan A Casey3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9809-4695Joel Schwartz4Michelle L Bell5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3965-1359Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne6Jared Fox7Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou8Robbie M Parks9https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7916-1717Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Columbia University Irving Medical Center , New York, NY, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University , Fort Collins, CO, United States of AmericaDepartment of Biostatistics and Informatics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University , Chicago, IL, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington School of Public Health , Seattle, WA, United States of America; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Health, Yale University School of the Environment , New Haven, CT, United States of AmericaEnvironmental Health Sciences, University of California Los Angeles , Los Angeles, CA, United States of AmericaFox EduConsulting , Chevy Chase, MD, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of AmericaQuantifying how hurricanes disrupt educational attainment is essential to evaluating the burden of climate-related disasters. Here, we examine the association between hurricane-force tropical cyclones and educational attainment among elementary and middle school students in all affected areas in the United States during the 2008/2009–2017/2018 school years. Educational performance was based on county-level average standardized test scores in math and reading/language arts (RLAs). Hurricane-force tropical cyclone-exposed counties were those that experienced a sustained maximal wind speed ⩾64 knots. We estimated the association between hurricane-force tropical cyclone exposure and long-term test scores using a Bayesian hierarchical linear model, accounting for time-varying covariates at the county and grade cohort level. For hurricane-exposed counties, compared with the rest of the state, there were better test scores in Florida in math ( β = 0.14; 95% CrI: 0.02, 0.26; PP[ β > 0] = 99.0%) and RLA ( β = 0.11; 95% CrI: 0.02, 0.22; PP[ β > 0] = 99.2%), and worse math scores in North Carolina ( β = −0.16; 95% CrI: −0.29, −0.03; PP[ β < 0] = 99.4%). Grade cohorts with more racialized and minoritized (e.g. Black, Hispanic, Indigenous) and socioeconomically disadvantaged students tended to have lower test scores, while grade cohorts with greater shares of students racialized as Asian and counties with more college-educated adults tended to have higher scores regardless of hurricane exposure. Disaster preparedness must maximize resilience to climate-related stressors’ impacts on academic achievement, especially for vulnerable populations.https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adb32btropical cycloneshurricaneseducational attainmentstandardized test scores
spellingShingle Gabriella Y Meltzer
G Brooke Anderson
Xicheng Xie
Joan A Casey
Joel Schwartz
Michelle L Bell
Yoshira Ornelas Van Horne
Jared Fox
Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
Robbie M Parks
Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
Environmental Research: Health
tropical cyclones
hurricanes
educational attainment
standardized test scores
title Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
title_full Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
title_fullStr Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
title_full_unstemmed Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
title_short Disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the United States
title_sort disruption to test scores after hurricanes in the united states
topic tropical cyclones
hurricanes
educational attainment
standardized test scores
url https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5309/adb32b
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