Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
Abstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We inve...
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BMC
2025-08-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9 |
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| author | Ilham Morani Haneen Shibli David Karasik Michael Edelstein |
| author_facet | Ilham Morani Haneen Shibli David Karasik Michael Edelstein |
| author_sort | Ilham Morani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the Israeli population. Methods Participants who took a COVID-19 PCR test between July 2021 and August 2022 completed an online survey including demographics, comorbidities, infection and vaccination status. We identified factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity using logistic regression and compared our results with the global literature. Results We included 2128 participants. Of these 823 participants were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Individuals without COPD and BMI > 30 had higher infection odds (aOR = 6.21, 95% CI:1.42–27.25 and aOR = 1.54, 95% CI:1.02–2.32; respectively). High school-level education was associated with increased susceptibility and severity compared to higher education (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.1–2.18 and aOR = 2.80, 95% CI 1.62–4.86; respectively). Hospitalization was associated with older age (p < 0.001). Vaccination with 3 doses significantly reduced infection and hospitalization risk compared to unvaccinated (aOR = 0.024, 95% CI:0.016–0.04 and aOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17–0.81; respectively, p < 0.05). Compared to Arab participants, Jewish ones were less likely to be infected (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI:1.02–2.15, p < 0.05). Conclusions Identified risk factors are consistent with meta-analyses of studies from other countries. Similar to other countries, minority groups were found to be at higher risk, therefore risk models predicting ARI susceptibility and severity have to take this into account. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c0aaafa52ad14e4eaf9959d80462c07e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-c0aaafa52ad14e4eaf9959d80462c07e2025-08-20T03:04:15ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342025-08-0125111210.1186/s12879-025-11357-9Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoringIlham Morani0Haneen Shibli1David Karasik2Michael Edelstein3The Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityAbstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the Israeli population. Methods Participants who took a COVID-19 PCR test between July 2021 and August 2022 completed an online survey including demographics, comorbidities, infection and vaccination status. We identified factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity using logistic regression and compared our results with the global literature. Results We included 2128 participants. Of these 823 participants were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Individuals without COPD and BMI > 30 had higher infection odds (aOR = 6.21, 95% CI:1.42–27.25 and aOR = 1.54, 95% CI:1.02–2.32; respectively). High school-level education was associated with increased susceptibility and severity compared to higher education (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.1–2.18 and aOR = 2.80, 95% CI 1.62–4.86; respectively). Hospitalization was associated with older age (p < 0.001). Vaccination with 3 doses significantly reduced infection and hospitalization risk compared to unvaccinated (aOR = 0.024, 95% CI:0.016–0.04 and aOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17–0.81; respectively, p < 0.05). Compared to Arab participants, Jewish ones were less likely to be infected (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI:1.02–2.15, p < 0.05). Conclusions Identified risk factors are consistent with meta-analyses of studies from other countries. Similar to other countries, minority groups were found to be at higher risk, therefore risk models predicting ARI susceptibility and severity have to take this into account.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9Acute respiratory tract infectionCoronavirus (COVID-19)Epidemiological risk factorsIsrael |
| spellingShingle | Ilham Morani Haneen Shibli David Karasik Michael Edelstein Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring BMC Infectious Diseases Acute respiratory tract infection Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemiological risk factors Israel |
| title | Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring |
| title_full | Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring |
| title_fullStr | Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring |
| title_short | Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring |
| title_sort | determining population specific risk factors for covid 19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual level integrated risk scoring |
| topic | Acute respiratory tract infection Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemiological risk factors Israel |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ilhammorani determiningpopulationspecificriskfactorsforcovid19susceptibilityandseveritytoinformfutureindividuallevelintegratedriskscoring AT haneenshibli determiningpopulationspecificriskfactorsforcovid19susceptibilityandseveritytoinformfutureindividuallevelintegratedriskscoring AT davidkarasik determiningpopulationspecificriskfactorsforcovid19susceptibilityandseveritytoinformfutureindividuallevelintegratedriskscoring AT michaeledelstein determiningpopulationspecificriskfactorsforcovid19susceptibilityandseveritytoinformfutureindividuallevelintegratedriskscoring |