Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring

Abstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We inve...

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Main Authors: Ilham Morani, Haneen Shibli, David Karasik, Michael Edelstein
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2025-08-01
Series:BMC Infectious Diseases
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9
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author Ilham Morani
Haneen Shibli
David Karasik
Michael Edelstein
author_facet Ilham Morani
Haneen Shibli
David Karasik
Michael Edelstein
author_sort Ilham Morani
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the Israeli population. Methods Participants who took a COVID-19 PCR test between July 2021 and August 2022 completed an online survey including demographics, comorbidities, infection and vaccination status. We identified factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity using logistic regression and compared our results with the global literature. Results We included 2128 participants. Of these 823 participants were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Individuals without COPD and BMI > 30 had higher infection odds (aOR = 6.21, 95% CI:1.42–27.25 and aOR = 1.54, 95% CI:1.02–2.32; respectively). High school-level education was associated with increased susceptibility and severity compared to higher education (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.1–2.18 and aOR = 2.80, 95% CI 1.62–4.86; respectively). Hospitalization was associated with older age (p < 0.001). Vaccination with 3 doses significantly reduced infection and hospitalization risk compared to unvaccinated (aOR = 0.024, 95% CI:0.016–0.04 and aOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17–0.81; respectively, p < 0.05). Compared to Arab participants, Jewish ones were less likely to be infected (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI:1.02–2.15, p < 0.05). Conclusions Identified risk factors are consistent with meta-analyses of studies from other countries. Similar to other countries, minority groups were found to be at higher risk, therefore risk models predicting ARI susceptibility and severity have to take this into account.
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spelling doaj-art-c0aaafa52ad14e4eaf9959d80462c07e2025-08-20T03:04:15ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342025-08-0125111210.1186/s12879-025-11357-9Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoringIlham Morani0Haneen Shibli1David Karasik2Michael Edelstein3The Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityThe Azrieli Faculty of Medicine, Bar-Ilan UniversityAbstract Objectives Acute respiratory tract infections (ARI), including COVID-19, are a significant global health challenge with pandemic potential. Understanding factors influencing ARI susceptibility and severity in different populations is crucial for pandemic preparedness and mitigation. We investigated epidemiological risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the Israeli population. Methods Participants who took a COVID-19 PCR test between July 2021 and August 2022 completed an online survey including demographics, comorbidities, infection and vaccination status. We identified factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity using logistic regression and compared our results with the global literature. Results We included 2128 participants. Of these 823 participants were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Individuals without COPD and BMI > 30 had higher infection odds (aOR = 6.21, 95% CI:1.42–27.25 and aOR = 1.54, 95% CI:1.02–2.32; respectively). High school-level education was associated with increased susceptibility and severity compared to higher education (aOR = 1.55, 95% CI:1.1–2.18 and aOR = 2.80, 95% CI 1.62–4.86; respectively). Hospitalization was associated with older age (p < 0.001). Vaccination with 3 doses significantly reduced infection and hospitalization risk compared to unvaccinated (aOR = 0.024, 95% CI:0.016–0.04 and aOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.17–0.81; respectively, p < 0.05). Compared to Arab participants, Jewish ones were less likely to be infected (aOR = 1.48, 95% CI:1.02–2.15, p < 0.05). Conclusions Identified risk factors are consistent with meta-analyses of studies from other countries. Similar to other countries, minority groups were found to be at higher risk, therefore risk models predicting ARI susceptibility and severity have to take this into account.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9Acute respiratory tract infectionCoronavirus (COVID-19)Epidemiological risk factorsIsrael
spellingShingle Ilham Morani
Haneen Shibli
David Karasik
Michael Edelstein
Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
BMC Infectious Diseases
Acute respiratory tract infection
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Epidemiological risk factors
Israel
title Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
title_full Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
title_fullStr Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
title_full_unstemmed Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
title_short Determining population-specific risk factors for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual-level integrated risk scoring
title_sort determining population specific risk factors for covid 19 susceptibility and severity to inform future individual level integrated risk scoring
topic Acute respiratory tract infection
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Epidemiological risk factors
Israel
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-11357-9
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AT davidkarasik determiningpopulationspecificriskfactorsforcovid19susceptibilityandseveritytoinformfutureindividuallevelintegratedriskscoring
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