Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics

Abstract Stability studies are vital in biologics development, guiding formulation, packaging, and shelf life determination. Traditionally, predicting long-term stability based on short-term data has been challenging due to the complex behavior of biologics. However, recently have been demonstrated...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mitja Zidar, Stefano Cucuzza, Matjaž Bončina, Drago Kuzman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07037-y
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849768685516881920
author Mitja Zidar
Stefano Cucuzza
Matjaž Bončina
Drago Kuzman
author_facet Mitja Zidar
Stefano Cucuzza
Matjaž Bončina
Drago Kuzman
author_sort Mitja Zidar
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Stability studies are vital in biologics development, guiding formulation, packaging, and shelf life determination. Traditionally, predicting long-term stability based on short-term data has been challenging due to the complex behavior of biologics. However, recently have been demonstrated that by using simple kinetics and the Arrhenius equation, it is possible to achieve accurate long-term stability predictions for various quality attributes, including protein aggregates. This study focuses on effective modeling of aggregate predictions for diverse protein modalities, such as IgG1, IgG2, Bispecific IgG, Fc fusion, scFv, bivalent nanobodies, and DARPins, using a first-order kinetic model. Notably, findings highlight the significance of temperature selection in stability studies, enabling the identification of dominant degradation processes. Additionally, simplicity of the first-order kinetic model enhances reliability by reducing the number of parameters and samples required. The model’s effectiveness was further validated across various protein formats, beyond IgG, emphasizing its broad applicability and reliability. Compared to linear extrapolation, the kinetic model provided more precise and accurate stability estimates, even with limited data points. These findings highlight the benefits of using kinetic modeling with optimal temperature selection to predict protein aggregate stability and other quality attributes, aiding biologics development and shelf-life determination.
format Article
id doaj-art-bf9ae8e5018048a69dd3191ccf8bed26
institution DOAJ
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Scientific Reports
spelling doaj-art-bf9ae8e5018048a69dd3191ccf8bed262025-08-20T03:03:42ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-011511810.1038/s41598-025-07037-ySimplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeuticsMitja Zidar0Stefano Cucuzza1Matjaž Bončina2Drago Kuzman3Novartis Pharma AG, TRD Biologics & CGT, GDDNovartis Pharma AG, TRD Biologics & CGT, GDDNovartis Pharma AG, TRD Biologics & CGT, GDDNovartis Pharma AG, TRD Biologics & CGT, GDDAbstract Stability studies are vital in biologics development, guiding formulation, packaging, and shelf life determination. Traditionally, predicting long-term stability based on short-term data has been challenging due to the complex behavior of biologics. However, recently have been demonstrated that by using simple kinetics and the Arrhenius equation, it is possible to achieve accurate long-term stability predictions for various quality attributes, including protein aggregates. This study focuses on effective modeling of aggregate predictions for diverse protein modalities, such as IgG1, IgG2, Bispecific IgG, Fc fusion, scFv, bivalent nanobodies, and DARPins, using a first-order kinetic model. Notably, findings highlight the significance of temperature selection in stability studies, enabling the identification of dominant degradation processes. Additionally, simplicity of the first-order kinetic model enhances reliability by reducing the number of parameters and samples required. The model’s effectiveness was further validated across various protein formats, beyond IgG, emphasizing its broad applicability and reliability. Compared to linear extrapolation, the kinetic model provided more precise and accurate stability estimates, even with limited data points. These findings highlight the benefits of using kinetic modeling with optimal temperature selection to predict protein aggregate stability and other quality attributes, aiding biologics development and shelf-life determination.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07037-yBiologicsKinetic modelingStability predictionsAggregation
spellingShingle Mitja Zidar
Stefano Cucuzza
Matjaž Bončina
Drago Kuzman
Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
Scientific Reports
Biologics
Kinetic modeling
Stability predictions
Aggregation
title Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
title_full Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
title_fullStr Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
title_full_unstemmed Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
title_short Simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
title_sort simplified kinetic modeling for predicting the stability of complex biotherapeutics
topic Biologics
Kinetic modeling
Stability predictions
Aggregation
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-07037-y
work_keys_str_mv AT mitjazidar simplifiedkineticmodelingforpredictingthestabilityofcomplexbiotherapeutics
AT stefanocucuzza simplifiedkineticmodelingforpredictingthestabilityofcomplexbiotherapeutics
AT matjazboncina simplifiedkineticmodelingforpredictingthestabilityofcomplexbiotherapeutics
AT dragokuzman simplifiedkineticmodelingforpredictingthestabilityofcomplexbiotherapeutics