Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major

Background: Cytomegalovirus infection is a common complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation that significantly influences clinical outcomes. Objectives: To develop and validate a predictive model for cytomegalovirus infection risk in patients with β-thalassemia major undergoing...

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Main Authors: Lin Pan, Zhenbin Wei, Yanni Xie, Zhaoping Gan, Hongwen Xiao, Lianjin Liu, Lingling Shi, Zhongming Zhang, Meiqing Wu, Yinghua Chen, Yanye Liu, Xuemei Zhou, Chan Li, Chunjie Qin, Yongrong Lai, Rongrong Liu
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Language:English
Published: SAGE Publishing 2025-07-01
Series:SAGE Open Medicine
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1177/20503121251360132
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author Lin Pan
Zhenbin Wei
Yanni Xie
Zhaoping Gan
Hongwen Xiao
Lianjin Liu
Lingling Shi
Zhongming Zhang
Meiqing Wu
Yinghua Chen
Yanye Liu
Xuemei Zhou
Chan Li
Chunjie Qin
Yongrong Lai
Rongrong Liu
author_facet Lin Pan
Zhenbin Wei
Yanni Xie
Zhaoping Gan
Hongwen Xiao
Lianjin Liu
Lingling Shi
Zhongming Zhang
Meiqing Wu
Yinghua Chen
Yanye Liu
Xuemei Zhou
Chan Li
Chunjie Qin
Yongrong Lai
Rongrong Liu
author_sort Lin Pan
collection DOAJ
description Background: Cytomegalovirus infection is a common complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation that significantly influences clinical outcomes. Objectives: To develop and validate a predictive model for cytomegalovirus infection risk in patients with β-thalassemia major undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Clinical data from 291 β-thalassemia major patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation were retrospectively analyzed. Independent risk factors identified via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses formed the basis of a predictive nomogram. The model’s performance was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling, and external validation was conducted with an independent cohort of 84 patients from another center. Results: Three independent predictors of cytomegalovirus infection were identified: serum albumin levels, donor type, and grade III–IV acute graft-versus-host disease. A nomogram incorporating these predictors was established, demonstrating good discriminative ability (C-index: 0.745; 95% CI: 0.684–0.807). Internal and external validations yielded C-indices of 0.746 and 0.649, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.745 in the training cohort and 0.649 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: We developed and validated a reliable predictive model for assessing cytomegalovirus infection risk after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in β-thalassemia major patients. This scoring system offers clinicians a practical tool for early risk stratification and intervention.
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spelling doaj-art-bf2b2b31347e444b980ef679abf13e522025-08-20T03:56:05ZengSAGE PublishingSAGE Open Medicine2050-31212025-07-011310.1177/20503121251360132Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia majorLin Pan0Zhenbin Wei1Yanni Xie2Zhaoping Gan3Hongwen Xiao4Lianjin Liu5Lingling Shi6Zhongming Zhang7Meiqing Wu8Yinghua Chen9Yanye Liu10Xuemei Zhou11Chan Li12Chunjie Qin13Yongrong Lai14Rongrong Liu15The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaGuangxi Key Laboratory of Thalassemia Research, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaGuangxi Key Laboratory of Thalassemia Research, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaGuangxi Key Laboratory of Thalassemia Research, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, P. R. ChinaLiuzhou People’s Hospital, Guangxi, P. R. ChinaLiuzhou People’s Hospital, Guangxi, P. R. ChinaGuangxi Key Laboratory of Thalassemia Research, Nanning, P. R. ChinaGuangxi Key Laboratory of Thalassemia Research, Nanning, P. R. ChinaBackground: Cytomegalovirus infection is a common complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation that significantly influences clinical outcomes. Objectives: To develop and validate a predictive model for cytomegalovirus infection risk in patients with β-thalassemia major undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Clinical data from 291 β-thalassemia major patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation were retrospectively analyzed. Independent risk factors identified via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses formed the basis of a predictive nomogram. The model’s performance was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling, and external validation was conducted with an independent cohort of 84 patients from another center. Results: Three independent predictors of cytomegalovirus infection were identified: serum albumin levels, donor type, and grade III–IV acute graft-versus-host disease. A nomogram incorporating these predictors was established, demonstrating good discriminative ability (C-index: 0.745; 95% CI: 0.684–0.807). Internal and external validations yielded C-indices of 0.746 and 0.649, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.745 in the training cohort and 0.649 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: We developed and validated a reliable predictive model for assessing cytomegalovirus infection risk after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in β-thalassemia major patients. This scoring system offers clinicians a practical tool for early risk stratification and intervention.https://doi.org/10.1177/20503121251360132
spellingShingle Lin Pan
Zhenbin Wei
Yanni Xie
Zhaoping Gan
Hongwen Xiao
Lianjin Liu
Lingling Shi
Zhongming Zhang
Meiqing Wu
Yinghua Chen
Yanye Liu
Xuemei Zhou
Chan Li
Chunjie Qin
Yongrong Lai
Rongrong Liu
Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
SAGE Open Medicine
title Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
title_full Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
title_fullStr Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
title_full_unstemmed Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
title_short Prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β-thalassemia major
title_sort prediction model for cytomegalovirus infection following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in patients with β thalassemia major
url https://doi.org/10.1177/20503121251360132
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