Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning

Accurate time prediction is critical to the success of ship block manufacturing. However, the emergence of new ship types with limited historical data poses challenges to existing prediction methods. In response, this paper proposes a novel framework for ship block manufacturing time prediction, int...

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Main Authors: Jinghua Li, Pengfei Lin, Dening Song, Zhe Yan, Boxin Yang, Lei Zhou
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/11/1977
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author Jinghua Li
Pengfei Lin
Dening Song
Zhe Yan
Boxin Yang
Lei Zhou
author_facet Jinghua Li
Pengfei Lin
Dening Song
Zhe Yan
Boxin Yang
Lei Zhou
author_sort Jinghua Li
collection DOAJ
description Accurate time prediction is critical to the success of ship block manufacturing. However, the emergence of new ship types with limited historical data poses challenges to existing prediction methods. In response, this paper proposes a novel framework for ship block manufacturing time prediction, integrating clustering and the transfer learning algorithm. Firstly, the concept of distributed centroids was innovatively adopted to achieve the clustering of categorical attribute features. Secondly, abundant historical data from other types of blocks (source domain) were incorporated into the neural network model to explore the effects of block features on manufacturing time, and the model was further transferred to blocks with limited data (target domain). Leveraging the similarities and differences between source and target domain blocks, actions involving freezing and fine-tuning parameters were adopted for the predictive model development. Despite a small sample size of only 80, our proposed block time prediction method achieves an impressive mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.62%. In contrast, the MAPE for the predictive model without a transfer learning algorithm is notably higher at 14.97%. Experimental validation demonstrates the superior performance of our approach compared to alternative methods in scenarios with small sample datasets. This research addresses a critical gap in ship block manufacturing time prediction.
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issn 2077-1312
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record_format Article
series Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
spelling doaj-art-bf1f25f1b29b431ea9850737fd9c77ea2025-08-20T01:53:53ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122024-11-011211197710.3390/jmse12111977Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer LearningJinghua Li0Pengfei Lin1Dening Song2Zhe Yan3Boxin Yang4Lei Zhou5College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaCollege of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaShanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200137, ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaCollege of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, ChinaAccurate time prediction is critical to the success of ship block manufacturing. However, the emergence of new ship types with limited historical data poses challenges to existing prediction methods. In response, this paper proposes a novel framework for ship block manufacturing time prediction, integrating clustering and the transfer learning algorithm. Firstly, the concept of distributed centroids was innovatively adopted to achieve the clustering of categorical attribute features. Secondly, abundant historical data from other types of blocks (source domain) were incorporated into the neural network model to explore the effects of block features on manufacturing time, and the model was further transferred to blocks with limited data (target domain). Leveraging the similarities and differences between source and target domain blocks, actions involving freezing and fine-tuning parameters were adopted for the predictive model development. Despite a small sample size of only 80, our proposed block time prediction method achieves an impressive mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.62%. In contrast, the MAPE for the predictive model without a transfer learning algorithm is notably higher at 14.97%. Experimental validation demonstrates the superior performance of our approach compared to alternative methods in scenarios with small sample datasets. This research addresses a critical gap in ship block manufacturing time prediction.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/11/1977ship block manufacturingtime predictionclusteringtransfer learning algorithmneural network
spellingShingle Jinghua Li
Pengfei Lin
Dening Song
Zhe Yan
Boxin Yang
Lei Zhou
Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
ship block manufacturing
time prediction
clustering
transfer learning algorithm
neural network
title Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
title_full Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
title_fullStr Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
title_full_unstemmed Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
title_short Time Prediction in Ship Block Manufacturing Based on Transfer Learning
title_sort time prediction in ship block manufacturing based on transfer learning
topic ship block manufacturing
time prediction
clustering
transfer learning algorithm
neural network
url https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/12/11/1977
work_keys_str_mv AT jinghuali timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning
AT pengfeilin timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning
AT deningsong timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning
AT zheyan timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning
AT boxinyang timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning
AT leizhou timepredictioninshipblockmanufacturingbasedontransferlearning