The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world
Numerous studies have investigated the impact of heatwaves on non-accidental mortality, yet the association and burden of heatwaves on mechanism-specific injury mortality remain underexplored. This study collected 257,267 injury-related fatalities and corresponding daily maximum temperatures (DMT) a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environment International |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008286 |
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| _version_ | 1832590004398850048 |
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| author | Jianxiong Hu Shaoli Huang Yulin Zhuo Jianhua Zhang Weiwei Gong Guanhao He Maigeng Zhou Fangfang Zeng Ruilin Meng Tao Liu Chunliang Zhou Yize Xiao Min Yu Biao Huang Guoxia Bai Hua Guo Wenjun Ma |
| author_facet | Jianxiong Hu Shaoli Huang Yulin Zhuo Jianhua Zhang Weiwei Gong Guanhao He Maigeng Zhou Fangfang Zeng Ruilin Meng Tao Liu Chunliang Zhou Yize Xiao Min Yu Biao Huang Guoxia Bai Hua Guo Wenjun Ma |
| author_sort | Jianxiong Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Numerous studies have investigated the impact of heatwaves on non-accidental mortality, yet the association and burden of heatwaves on mechanism-specific injury mortality remain underexplored. This study collected 257,267 injury-related fatalities and corresponding daily maximum temperatures (DMT) across seven Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2023. A heatwave was characterized by two or more successive days where the DMT surpassed its 92.5th percentile. Employing a case-crossover design, the study revealed a 12 % increase in injury mortality [95 % confidence interval (CI): 10 %, 14 %] during heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days, with a notably higher risk for drowning (ER = 22 %, 95 % CI: 16 %, 30 %). From 2013 to 2023, heatwaves were responsible for 1.64 % (95 % CI: 1.37 %, 1.90 %) of total injury-related fatalities. Additionally, future mortality burdens from 2030 to 2099 were projected, revealing that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the attributable fractions (AFs) of injury mortality due to heatwaves is expected to escalate from 2.66 % in the 2030s (95 % CI: 2.02 %, 3.44 %) to 7.72 % (95 % CI: 5.87 %, 9.97 %) in the 2090s, particularly in southwest China. Regarding specific mechanisms of injury, AFs for drowning is projected to rise significantly from 4.60 % (95 % CI: 3.36 %, 5.87 %) in the 2030s to 13.35 % (95 % CI: 9.75 %, 17.02 %) by the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This investigation underscores that heatwaves pose a significant risk for injury-related mortality, offering valuable insights for the development of adaptation strategies to effectively address climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-beca238728a1475296b27080d7407df3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj-art-beca238728a1475296b27080d7407df32025-01-24T04:44:11ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202025-01-01195109241The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming worldJianxiong Hu0Shaoli Huang1Yulin Zhuo2Jianhua Zhang3Weiwei Gong4Guanhao He5Maigeng Zhou6Fangfang Zeng7Ruilin Meng8Tao Liu9Chunliang Zhou10Yize Xiao11Min Yu12Biao Huang13Guoxia Bai14Hua Guo15Wenjun Ma16Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control (Jinan University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, ChinaChemical and Biological Engineering Department, School of Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong 999077, ChinaDepartment of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, ChinaGuizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, ChinaZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, ChinaDepartment of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, ChinaThe National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, ChinaDepartment of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, ChinaDepartment of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control (Jinan University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, ChinaHunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, ChinaYunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650034, ChinaZhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, ChinaJilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, ChinaTibet Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lhasa 850002, ChinaGuizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang 550004, China; Corresponding authors at: Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University (W. Ma). Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (H. Guo).Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control (Jinan University), Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China; Corresponding authors at: Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University (W. Ma). Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (H. Guo).Numerous studies have investigated the impact of heatwaves on non-accidental mortality, yet the association and burden of heatwaves on mechanism-specific injury mortality remain underexplored. This study collected 257,267 injury-related fatalities and corresponding daily maximum temperatures (DMT) across seven Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2023. A heatwave was characterized by two or more successive days where the DMT surpassed its 92.5th percentile. Employing a case-crossover design, the study revealed a 12 % increase in injury mortality [95 % confidence interval (CI): 10 %, 14 %] during heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days, with a notably higher risk for drowning (ER = 22 %, 95 % CI: 16 %, 30 %). From 2013 to 2023, heatwaves were responsible for 1.64 % (95 % CI: 1.37 %, 1.90 %) of total injury-related fatalities. Additionally, future mortality burdens from 2030 to 2099 were projected, revealing that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the attributable fractions (AFs) of injury mortality due to heatwaves is expected to escalate from 2.66 % in the 2030s (95 % CI: 2.02 %, 3.44 %) to 7.72 % (95 % CI: 5.87 %, 9.97 %) in the 2090s, particularly in southwest China. Regarding specific mechanisms of injury, AFs for drowning is projected to rise significantly from 4.60 % (95 % CI: 3.36 %, 5.87 %) in the 2030s to 13.35 % (95 % CI: 9.75 %, 17.02 %) by the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This investigation underscores that heatwaves pose a significant risk for injury-related mortality, offering valuable insights for the development of adaptation strategies to effectively address climate change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008286 |
| spellingShingle | Jianxiong Hu Shaoli Huang Yulin Zhuo Jianhua Zhang Weiwei Gong Guanhao He Maigeng Zhou Fangfang Zeng Ruilin Meng Tao Liu Chunliang Zhou Yize Xiao Min Yu Biao Huang Guoxia Bai Hua Guo Wenjun Ma The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world Environment International |
| title | The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world |
| title_full | The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world |
| title_fullStr | The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world |
| title_full_unstemmed | The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world |
| title_short | The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world |
| title_sort | mechanism specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in china in a warming world |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412024008286 |
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