Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells

Abstract The persistence of heat waves and droughts is a key factor in determining their societal impact. Here, the local effect of atmospheric blocks on the persistence of summer hot and dry spells is quantified by comparing their climatological daily survival probability, that is, the probability...

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Main Authors: Matthias Röthlisberger, Olivia Martius
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2019-08-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083745
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author Matthias Röthlisberger
Olivia Martius
author_facet Matthias Röthlisberger
Olivia Martius
author_sort Matthias Röthlisberger
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The persistence of heat waves and droughts is a key factor in determining their societal impact. Here, the local effect of atmospheric blocks on the persistence of summer hot and dry spells is quantified by comparing their climatological daily survival probability, that is, the probability to survive the next day, to their daily survival probability when they co‐occur with a block. The survival odds of hot spells are increased by more than 50% over most of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land masses when co‐occurring with blocks. Dry spell persistence is also strongly increased by colocated blocks over western North America, Europe, and southern Russia, while it is significantly decreased over the western North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. These spatial differences in the effect of blocks on both spell types are explained by considering the spatially varying surface temperature and precipitation anomalies induced by the blocks.
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spelling doaj-art-be8283e577444e5e928a0ccd6e0e4a542025-08-20T02:24:35ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072019-08-014616101011011110.1029/2019GL083745Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry SpellsMatthias Röthlisberger0Olivia Martius1Institute of Geography University of Bern Bern SwitzerlandInstitute of Geography University of Bern Bern SwitzerlandAbstract The persistence of heat waves and droughts is a key factor in determining their societal impact. Here, the local effect of atmospheric blocks on the persistence of summer hot and dry spells is quantified by comparing their climatological daily survival probability, that is, the probability to survive the next day, to their daily survival probability when they co‐occur with a block. The survival odds of hot spells are increased by more than 50% over most of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical land masses when co‐occurring with blocks. Dry spell persistence is also strongly increased by colocated blocks over western North America, Europe, and southern Russia, while it is significantly decreased over the western North Atlantic and the western North Pacific. These spatial differences in the effect of blocks on both spell types are explained by considering the spatially varying surface temperature and precipitation anomalies induced by the blocks.https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083745atmospheric blockinghot spellsdry spellscompound eventspersistencehigh‐impact weather
spellingShingle Matthias Röthlisberger
Olivia Martius
Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
Geophysical Research Letters
atmospheric blocking
hot spells
dry spells
compound events
persistence
high‐impact weather
title Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
title_full Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
title_fullStr Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
title_short Quantifying the Local Effect of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocks on the Persistence of Summer Hot and Dry Spells
title_sort quantifying the local effect of northern hemisphere atmospheric blocks on the persistence of summer hot and dry spells
topic atmospheric blocking
hot spells
dry spells
compound events
persistence
high‐impact weather
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083745
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