Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating trends in extreme spatiotemporal processes using both information from marginal distributions and dependence structure. We combine two statistical approaches of an extreme value theory: the temporal and spatial nonstationarities are handled via a...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2608270 |
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| _version_ | 1849685620990935040 |
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| author | Sawadogo Béwentaoré Diakarya Barro |
| author_facet | Sawadogo Béwentaoré Diakarya Barro |
| author_sort | Sawadogo Béwentaoré |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating trends in extreme spatiotemporal processes using both information from marginal distributions and dependence structure. We combine two statistical approaches of an extreme value theory: the temporal and spatial nonstationarities are handled via a tail trend function in the marginal distributions. The spatial dependence structure is modeled by a latent spatial process using generalized ℓ-Pareto processes. This methodology for trend analysis of extreme events is applied to precipitation data from Burkina Faso. We show that a significant increasing trend for the 50 and 100 year return levels in some parts of the country. We also show that extreme precipitation is spatially correlated with distance for a radius of approximately 200 km. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-be4e2adfdcd949e9ac9898078aa00d6d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1687-0425 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-be4e2adfdcd949e9ac9898078aa00d6d2025-08-20T03:23:03ZengWileyInternational Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences1687-04252022-01-01202210.1155/2022/2608270Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina FasoSawadogo Béwentaoré0Diakarya Barro1LANIBIOLANIBIOIn this paper, we propose a new method for estimating trends in extreme spatiotemporal processes using both information from marginal distributions and dependence structure. We combine two statistical approaches of an extreme value theory: the temporal and spatial nonstationarities are handled via a tail trend function in the marginal distributions. The spatial dependence structure is modeled by a latent spatial process using generalized ℓ-Pareto processes. This methodology for trend analysis of extreme events is applied to precipitation data from Burkina Faso. We show that a significant increasing trend for the 50 and 100 year return levels in some parts of the country. We also show that extreme precipitation is spatially correlated with distance for a radius of approximately 200 km.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2608270 |
| spellingShingle | Sawadogo Béwentaoré Diakarya Barro Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences |
| title | Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso |
| title_full | Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso |
| title_fullStr | Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso |
| title_full_unstemmed | Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso |
| title_short | Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso |
| title_sort | space time trend detection and dependence modeling in extreme event approaches by functional peaks over thresholds application to precipitation in burkina faso |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2608270 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sawadogobewentaore spacetimetrenddetectionanddependencemodelinginextremeeventapproachesbyfunctionalpeaksoverthresholdsapplicationtoprecipitationinburkinafaso AT diakaryabarro spacetimetrenddetectionanddependencemodelinginextremeeventapproachesbyfunctionalpeaksoverthresholdsapplicationtoprecipitationinburkinafaso |