Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador

In landslide susceptibility modeling, research has predominantly focused on predicting landslides by identifying predisposing factors, often using inventories primarily based on the highest points of landslide crowns. However, a significant challenge arises when the transported mass impacts human ac...

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Main Authors: Laura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba, Abel Alexei Argueta-Platero, Tomás Fernández, Claudio Mercurio, Chiara Martinello, Edoardo Rotigliano, Christian Conoscenti
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-01-01
Series:Land
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/269
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author Laura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba
Abel Alexei Argueta-Platero
Tomás Fernández
Claudio Mercurio
Chiara Martinello
Edoardo Rotigliano
Christian Conoscenti
author_facet Laura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba
Abel Alexei Argueta-Platero
Tomás Fernández
Claudio Mercurio
Chiara Martinello
Edoardo Rotigliano
Christian Conoscenti
author_sort Laura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba
collection DOAJ
description In landslide susceptibility modeling, research has predominantly focused on predicting landslides by identifying predisposing factors, often using inventories primarily based on the highest points of landslide crowns. However, a significant challenge arises when the transported mass impacts human activities directly, typically occurring in the deposition areas of these phenomena. Therefore, identifying the terrain characteristics that facilitate the transport and deposition of displaced material in affected areas is equally crucial. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive capability of identifying where displaced material might be deposited by using different inventories of specific parts of a landslide, including the source area, intermediate area, and deposition area. A sample segmentation was conducted that included inventories of these distinct parts of the landslide in the hydrographic basin of Lake Ilopango, which experienced debris flows and debris floods triggered by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ida in November 2009. Given the extensive variables extracted for this evaluation (20 variables), the Induced Smoothed (IS) version of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) methodology was employed to determine the significance of each variable within the datasets. Additionally, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) algorithm was used for modeling. Our findings revealed that models developed using the deposition area dataset were more effective compared with those based on the source area dataset. Furthermore, the accuracy of models using deposition area data surpassed that of that using data from both the source and intermediate areas.
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spelling doaj-art-be23bef4e0754237be026dfce3ce11fe2025-08-20T03:12:19ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-01-0114226910.3390/land14020269Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El SalvadorLaura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba0Abel Alexei Argueta-Platero1Tomás Fernández2Claudio Mercurio3Chiara Martinello4Edoardo Rotigliano5Christian Conoscenti6Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyDepartment of Cartographic, Geodetic and Photogrammetric Engineering, Centre for Advanced Studies in Earth Sciences, Energy and Environment. University of Jaén, 23071 Jaén, SpainDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyDipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare (DiSTeM), University of Palermo, Via Archirafi 22, 90123 Palermo, ItalyIn landslide susceptibility modeling, research has predominantly focused on predicting landslides by identifying predisposing factors, often using inventories primarily based on the highest points of landslide crowns. However, a significant challenge arises when the transported mass impacts human activities directly, typically occurring in the deposition areas of these phenomena. Therefore, identifying the terrain characteristics that facilitate the transport and deposition of displaced material in affected areas is equally crucial. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive capability of identifying where displaced material might be deposited by using different inventories of specific parts of a landslide, including the source area, intermediate area, and deposition area. A sample segmentation was conducted that included inventories of these distinct parts of the landslide in the hydrographic basin of Lake Ilopango, which experienced debris flows and debris floods triggered by heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ida in November 2009. Given the extensive variables extracted for this evaluation (20 variables), the Induced Smoothed (IS) version of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) methodology was employed to determine the significance of each variable within the datasets. Additionally, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) algorithm was used for modeling. Our findings revealed that models developed using the deposition area dataset were more effective compared with those based on the source area dataset. Furthermore, the accuracy of models using deposition area data surpassed that of that using data from both the source and intermediate areas.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/269sampling strategiesdeposit areasdebris flowsdebris floodsvariable significancelandslide inventory
spellingShingle Laura Paola Calderon-Cucunuba
Abel Alexei Argueta-Platero
Tomás Fernández
Claudio Mercurio
Chiara Martinello
Edoardo Rotigliano
Christian Conoscenti
Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
Land
sampling strategies
deposit areas
debris flows
debris floods
variable significance
landslide inventory
title Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
title_full Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
title_fullStr Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
title_full_unstemmed Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
title_short Predicting Landslide Deposit Zones: Insights from Advanced Sampling Strategies in the Ilopango Caldera, El Salvador
title_sort predicting landslide deposit zones insights from advanced sampling strategies in the ilopango caldera el salvador
topic sampling strategies
deposit areas
debris flows
debris floods
variable significance
landslide inventory
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/269
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