Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions
Abstract Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator—additional carbon accountability—that quantifies countries’ responsibility for mitigation and CO2 removal in addition to achieving their own targets. Considering carb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54039-x |
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| author | Thomas Hahn Johannes Morfeldt Robert Höglund Mikael Karlsson Ingo Fetzer |
| author_facet | Thomas Hahn Johannes Morfeldt Robert Höglund Mikael Karlsson Ingo Fetzer |
| author_sort | Thomas Hahn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator—additional carbon accountability—that quantifies countries’ responsibility for mitigation and CO2 removal in addition to achieving their own targets. Considering carbon debts since 1990 and future claims based on countries’ emission pathways, the indicator uses an equal cumulative per capita emissions approach to allocate accountability for closing the mitigation gap among countries with a positive total excessive carbon claim. The carbon budget is exceeded by 576 Gigatonnes of fossil CO2 when limiting warming below 1.5 °C (50% probability). Additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Assumptions on carbon debts strongly impact the results for most countries. The ability to pay for this accountability is challenging for Iran, Kazakhstan and several BRICS+ members, in contrast to the G7 members. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bdd2b2bb64f342beac727df19a27b94e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-bdd2b2bb64f342beac727df19a27b94e2025-08-20T02:39:41ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232024-11-0115111010.1038/s41467-024-54039-xEstimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissionsThomas Hahn0Johannes Morfeldt1Robert Höglund2Mikael Karlsson3Ingo Fetzer4Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityPhysical Resource Theory, Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of TechnologyMarginal Carbon ABClimate Change Leadership, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala UniversityStockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm UniversityAbstract Quantifying fair national shares of the remaining global carbon budget has proven challenging. Here, we propose an indicator—additional carbon accountability—that quantifies countries’ responsibility for mitigation and CO2 removal in addition to achieving their own targets. Considering carbon debts since 1990 and future claims based on countries’ emission pathways, the indicator uses an equal cumulative per capita emissions approach to allocate accountability for closing the mitigation gap among countries with a positive total excessive carbon claim. The carbon budget is exceeded by 576 Gigatonnes of fossil CO2 when limiting warming below 1.5 °C (50% probability). Additional carbon accountability is highest for the United States and China, and highest per capita for the United Arab Emirates and Russia. Assumptions on carbon debts strongly impact the results for most countries. The ability to pay for this accountability is challenging for Iran, Kazakhstan and several BRICS+ members, in contrast to the G7 members.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54039-x |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Hahn Johannes Morfeldt Robert Höglund Mikael Karlsson Ingo Fetzer Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions Nature Communications |
| title | Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| title_full | Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| title_fullStr | Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| title_short | Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| title_sort | estimating countries additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-54039-x |
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