Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble
China is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Proje...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/963196 |
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| author | Huanghe Gu Zhongbo Yu Jigan Wang Qin Ju Chuanguo Yang Chuanhao Fan |
| author_facet | Huanghe Gu Zhongbo Yu Jigan Wang Qin Ju Chuanguo Yang Chuanhao Fan |
| author_sort | Huanghe Gu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Both high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP4.5) greenhouse gas emission trajectories are tested, and both the mean and extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation are considered in identifying regional climate change hotspots. Tarim basin and Tibetan Plateau in West China are identified as persistent regional climate change hotspots in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aggregate impacts of climate change increase throughout the 21st century and are more significant in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Extreme hot event and mean temperature are two climate variables that greatly contribute to the hotspots calculation in all regions. The contribution of other climate variables exhibits a notable subregional variability. South China is identified as another hotspot based on the change of extreme dry event, especially in SON and DJF, which indicates that such event will frequently occur in the future. Our results can contribute to the designing of national and cross-national adaptation and mitigation policies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bdb1f188335c41c3866cd25598e59e52 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-bdb1f188335c41c3866cd25598e59e522025-02-03T06:06:00ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/963196963196Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model EnsembleHuanghe Gu0Zhongbo Yu1Jigan Wang2Qin Ju3Chuanguo Yang4Chuanhao Fan5State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaBusiness School, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaBusiness School, Hohai University, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, ChinaChina is one of the countries vulnerable to adverse climate changes. The potential climate change hotspots in China throughout the 21st century are identified in this study by using a multimodel, multiscenario climate model ensemble that includes Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Both high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP4.5) greenhouse gas emission trajectories are tested, and both the mean and extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation are considered in identifying regional climate change hotspots. Tarim basin and Tibetan Plateau in West China are identified as persistent regional climate change hotspots in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aggregate impacts of climate change increase throughout the 21st century and are more significant in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. Extreme hot event and mean temperature are two climate variables that greatly contribute to the hotspots calculation in all regions. The contribution of other climate variables exhibits a notable subregional variability. South China is identified as another hotspot based on the change of extreme dry event, especially in SON and DJF, which indicates that such event will frequently occur in the future. Our results can contribute to the designing of national and cross-national adaptation and mitigation policies.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/963196 |
| spellingShingle | Huanghe Gu Zhongbo Yu Jigan Wang Qin Ju Chuanguo Yang Chuanhao Fan Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble |
| title_full | Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble |
| title_short | Climate Change Hotspots Identification in China through the CMIP5 Global Climate Model Ensemble |
| title_sort | climate change hotspots identification in china through the cmip5 global climate model ensemble |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/963196 |
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