Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study
Objective: Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province, East China. This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009–2019 and its prediction to 2030. Methods: The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated usin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Journal of the National Cancer Center |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005424001200 |
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| _version_ | 1849768924089942016 |
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| author | Weigang Miao Yuanyuan Feng Bijia Jiang Yanan Wan Xikang Fan Renqiang Han Jinyi Zhou |
| author_facet | Weigang Miao Yuanyuan Feng Bijia Jiang Yanan Wan Xikang Fan Renqiang Han Jinyi Zhou |
| author_sort | Weigang Miao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective: Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province, East China. This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009–2019 and its prediction to 2030. Methods: The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated using 54 cancer registries’ data selected from Jiangsu Cancer Registry. Incident cases of 16 cancer registries were applied for the temporal trend from 2009 to 2019. The burden of esophageal cancer by 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results: About 24,886 new cases of esophageal cancer (17,233 males and 7,653 females) occurred in Jiangsu in 2019. Rural regions of Jiangsu had the highest incidence rate. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, per 100,000 population) of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu decreased from 27.72 per 100,000 in 2009 to 14.18 per 100,000 in 2019. The BAPC model showed that the ASIR would decline from 13.01 per 100,000 in 2020 to 4.88 per 100,000 in 2030. Conclusions: According to the data, esophageal cancer incidence rates were predicted to decline until 2030, yet the disease burden is still significant in Jiangsu. The existing approaches to prevention and control are effective and need to be maintained. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bda201d2300d4d8aacea2cbbb6dfe262 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2667-0054 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of the National Cancer Center |
| spelling | doaj-art-bda201d2300d4d8aacea2cbbb6dfe2622025-08-20T03:03:38ZengElsevierJournal of the National Cancer Center2667-00542025-04-015214915510.1016/j.jncc.2024.11.004Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling studyWeigang Miao0Yuanyuan Feng1Bijia Jiang2Yanan Wan3Xikang Fan4Renqiang Han5Jinyi Zhou6Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaDepartment of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaCorresponding authors.; Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaCorresponding authors.; Department of Non-communicable Chronic Disease and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, ChinaObjective: Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province, East China. This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009–2019 and its prediction to 2030. Methods: The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated using 54 cancer registries’ data selected from Jiangsu Cancer Registry. Incident cases of 16 cancer registries were applied for the temporal trend from 2009 to 2019. The burden of esophageal cancer by 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Results: About 24,886 new cases of esophageal cancer (17,233 males and 7,653 females) occurred in Jiangsu in 2019. Rural regions of Jiangsu had the highest incidence rate. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR, per 100,000 population) of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu decreased from 27.72 per 100,000 in 2009 to 14.18 per 100,000 in 2019. The BAPC model showed that the ASIR would decline from 13.01 per 100,000 in 2020 to 4.88 per 100,000 in 2030. Conclusions: According to the data, esophageal cancer incidence rates were predicted to decline until 2030, yet the disease burden is still significant in Jiangsu. The existing approaches to prevention and control are effective and need to be maintained.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005424001200Esophageal cancerIncidenceBayesian methodPrediction |
| spellingShingle | Weigang Miao Yuanyuan Feng Bijia Jiang Yanan Wan Xikang Fan Renqiang Han Jinyi Zhou Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study Journal of the National Cancer Center Esophageal cancer Incidence Bayesian method Prediction |
| title | Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study |
| title_full | Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study |
| title_fullStr | Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study |
| title_short | Projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in Jiangsu Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study |
| title_sort | projections of esophageal cancer incidence trend in jiangsu province china a bayesian modeling study |
| topic | Esophageal cancer Incidence Bayesian method Prediction |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667005424001200 |
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