Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the water and energy cycles in desert grassland ecosystems. However, modeling ET in arid grasslands faces significant challenges due to data scarcity, high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and complex interactions among climatic drivers. To ad...

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Main Authors: Haitao Chen, Nishi Chu, Aiqing Kang, Wenchuan Wang, Ji He
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11056-0
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author Haitao Chen
Nishi Chu
Aiqing Kang
Wenchuan Wang
Ji He
author_facet Haitao Chen
Nishi Chu
Aiqing Kang
Wenchuan Wang
Ji He
author_sort Haitao Chen
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the water and energy cycles in desert grassland ecosystems. However, modeling ET in arid grasslands faces significant challenges due to data scarcity, high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and complex interactions among climatic drivers. To address these challenges, this study developed a Random Forest Regression (RF-R) model integrated with high-resolution PML-V2 ET data and CRU meteorological datasets (2001–2020) to simulate ET in China’s desert grasslands. The RF-R model achieved superior performance, with R² values of 0.953 (training) and 0.931 (testing), RMSE of 3.421 and 4.182 mm/month, and an average prediction bias of 11.815%. The comparative analysis between BPNN and SVR models confirms the robustness of RF-R estimates. Key climate factors were identified through multi-scale importance assessments: precipitation and wet-day frequency were the primary drivers, followed by cloud cover and diurnal temperature range. This study provides a reliable framework for ET simulation in data-scarce arid regions and supports targeted water management strategies for desert grassland restoration.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
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spelling doaj-art-bd9af488576d4d5bbc2245cf92460ff82025-08-20T04:03:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111610.1038/s41598-025-11056-0Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression modelHaitao Chen0Nishi Chu1Aiqing Kang2Wenchuan Wang3Ji He4College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerChina Institute of Water Resources and HydropowerCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerCollege of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerAbstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the water and energy cycles in desert grassland ecosystems. However, modeling ET in arid grasslands faces significant challenges due to data scarcity, high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and complex interactions among climatic drivers. To address these challenges, this study developed a Random Forest Regression (RF-R) model integrated with high-resolution PML-V2 ET data and CRU meteorological datasets (2001–2020) to simulate ET in China’s desert grasslands. The RF-R model achieved superior performance, with R² values of 0.953 (training) and 0.931 (testing), RMSE of 3.421 and 4.182 mm/month, and an average prediction bias of 11.815%. The comparative analysis between BPNN and SVR models confirms the robustness of RF-R estimates. Key climate factors were identified through multi-scale importance assessments: precipitation and wet-day frequency were the primary drivers, followed by cloud cover and diurnal temperature range. This study provides a reliable framework for ET simulation in data-scarce arid regions and supports targeted water management strategies for desert grassland restoration.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11056-0EvapotranspirationRandom forestPML-V2Desert grassland
spellingShingle Haitao Chen
Nishi Chu
Aiqing Kang
Wenchuan Wang
Ji He
Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
Scientific Reports
Evapotranspiration
Random forest
PML-V2
Desert grassland
title Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
title_full Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
title_fullStr Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
title_full_unstemmed Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
title_short Simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
title_sort simulation and analysis of evapotranspiration from desert grasslands based on a random forest regression model
topic Evapotranspiration
Random forest
PML-V2
Desert grassland
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11056-0
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AT aiqingkang simulationandanalysisofevapotranspirationfromdesertgrasslandsbasedonarandomforestregressionmodel
AT wenchuanwang simulationandanalysisofevapotranspirationfromdesertgrasslandsbasedonarandomforestregressionmodel
AT jihe simulationandanalysisofevapotranspirationfromdesertgrasslandsbasedonarandomforestregressionmodel