Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach.
Decisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal leve...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0235969&type=printable |
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| author | Tom Kompas Pham Van Ha Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen Graeme Garner Sharon Roche Iain East |
| author_facet | Tom Kompas Pham Van Ha Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen Graeme Garner Sharon Roche Iain East |
| author_sort | Tom Kompas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Decisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal level of surveillance against a highly infectious animal disease where time, space and randomness are fully considered. We apply the Sample Average Approximation approach to solve our problem, and to control model dimension, we propose the use of an infection tree model, in combination with sensible 'tree-pruning' and parallel processing techniques. Our proposed model and techniques are generally applicable to a number of disease types, but we demonstrate the approach by solving for optimal surveillance levels against foot-and-mouth disease using bulk milk testing as an active surveillance protocol, during an epidemic, among 42,279 farms, fully characterised by their location, livestock type and size, in the state of Victoria, Australia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bd44f19707e441c4a13e87b36286b3b4 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-bd44f19707e441c4a13e87b36286b3b42025-08-20T02:10:59ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01157e023596910.1371/journal.pone.0235969Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach.Tom KompasPham Van HaHoa-Thi-Minh NguyenGraeme GarnerSharon RocheIain EastDecisions surrounding the presence of infectious diseases are typically made in the face of considerable uncertainty. However, the development of models to guide these decisions has been substantially constrained by computational difficulty. This paper focuses on the case of finding the optimal level of surveillance against a highly infectious animal disease where time, space and randomness are fully considered. We apply the Sample Average Approximation approach to solve our problem, and to control model dimension, we propose the use of an infection tree model, in combination with sensible 'tree-pruning' and parallel processing techniques. Our proposed model and techniques are generally applicable to a number of disease types, but we demonstrate the approach by solving for optimal surveillance levels against foot-and-mouth disease using bulk milk testing as an active surveillance protocol, during an epidemic, among 42,279 farms, fully characterised by their location, livestock type and size, in the state of Victoria, Australia.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0235969&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Tom Kompas Pham Van Ha Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen Graeme Garner Sharon Roche Iain East Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. PLoS ONE |
| title | Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. |
| title_full | Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. |
| title_fullStr | Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. |
| title_short | Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: A sample average approximation approach. |
| title_sort | optimal surveillance against foot and mouth disease a sample average approximation approach |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0235969&type=printable |
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