Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales

Abstract The global capacity for wind power has grown rapidly in recent years, yet uncertainties in wind power density (WPD) assessments still hinder effective climate change mitigation efforts. One major challenge is the significant underestimation of WPD when using coarser temporal resolutions (∆t...

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Main Authors: Chengzhi Hou, Zhiwei Xu, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Danqing Huang, Huayu Lu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-04-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59195-2
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author Chengzhi Hou
Zhiwei Xu
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
Danqing Huang
Huayu Lu
author_facet Chengzhi Hou
Zhiwei Xu
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
Danqing Huang
Huayu Lu
author_sort Chengzhi Hou
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The global capacity for wind power has grown rapidly in recent years, yet uncertainties in wind power density (WPD) assessments still hinder effective climate change mitigation efforts. One major challenge is the significant underestimation of WPD when using coarser temporal resolutions (∆t) of wind speed data. Here, we show that using daily ∆t results in an average underestimation of 35.6% in global onshore WPD compared to hourly ∆t. This discrepancy arises from the exponential decay of WPD with increasing ∆t, reflecting the intrinsic properties of wind speed distributions, particularly in regions with weaker winds. To address this, we propose a calibration method that introduces a correction coefficient to reduce biases and harmonize WPD estimates across temporal resolutions. Applying this method to future wind energy projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario increases global onshore WPD estimates by 25% by 2100, compared to uncorrected daily data. These findings highlight the effectiveness of calibration in reducing uncertainties, enhancing WPD assessments, and facilitating robust policy action toward carbon neutrality.
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issn 2041-1723
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spelling doaj-art-bcfd31912ff0461ea878083df8ea3f492025-08-20T03:15:13ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-04-0116111010.1038/s41467-025-59195-2Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scalesChengzhi Hou0Zhiwei Xu1Kristopher B. Karnauskas2Danqing Huang3Huayu Lu4School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversitySchool of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of ColoradoSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing UniversitySchool of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing UniversityAbstract The global capacity for wind power has grown rapidly in recent years, yet uncertainties in wind power density (WPD) assessments still hinder effective climate change mitigation efforts. One major challenge is the significant underestimation of WPD when using coarser temporal resolutions (∆t) of wind speed data. Here, we show that using daily ∆t results in an average underestimation of 35.6% in global onshore WPD compared to hourly ∆t. This discrepancy arises from the exponential decay of WPD with increasing ∆t, reflecting the intrinsic properties of wind speed distributions, particularly in regions with weaker winds. To address this, we propose a calibration method that introduces a correction coefficient to reduce biases and harmonize WPD estimates across temporal resolutions. Applying this method to future wind energy projections under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 scenario increases global onshore WPD estimates by 25% by 2100, compared to uncorrected daily data. These findings highlight the effectiveness of calibration in reducing uncertainties, enhancing WPD assessments, and facilitating robust policy action toward carbon neutrality.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59195-2
spellingShingle Chengzhi Hou
Zhiwei Xu
Kristopher B. Karnauskas
Danqing Huang
Huayu Lu
Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
Nature Communications
title Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
title_full Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
title_fullStr Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
title_full_unstemmed Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
title_short Detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
title_sort detecting and calibrating large biases in global onshore wind power assessment across temporal scales
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59195-2
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