Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in Africa, despite global efforts to eliminate the disease by 2030. This study estimates the burden, trends, and inequalities of schistosomiasis in Africa from 1990 to 2021, and projects future prevalence to inform the WHO’s elimination strategie...
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MDPI AG
2025-02-01
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| author | Dandan Peng Yajing Zhu Lu Liu Jianfeng Zhang Peng Huang Shaowen Bai Xinyao Wang Kun Yang |
| author_facet | Dandan Peng Yajing Zhu Lu Liu Jianfeng Zhang Peng Huang Shaowen Bai Xinyao Wang Kun Yang |
| author_sort | Dandan Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in Africa, despite global efforts to eliminate the disease by 2030. This study estimates the burden, trends, and inequalities of schistosomiasis in Africa from 1990 to 2021, and projects future prevalence to inform the WHO’s elimination strategies. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021) were used to calculate annual average percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC), with spatial global autocorrelation analysis performed to examine temporal and spatial trends. Five modeling algorithms were constructed to predict disease burden in Africa from 2022 to 2041. The age-standardized prevalences rate (ASPR) of schistosomiasis in Africa decreased from 18,495.51 per 100,000 in 1990 to 9,461.76 per 100,000 in 2021. The total number of cases, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and mortality accounted for 84.25%, 87.92% and 87.28% of the global totals, respectively. ARIMA modeling predicts that by 2030, the ASPR will reach 3.99%. Despite progress, the burden remains significant, and intensified efforts are needed, particularly in high-burden regions like West Africa, to meet the WHO’s 2030 elimination targets. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc96a6b5db94458f920f3ec42da3c69b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2414-6366 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc96a6b5db94458f920f3ec42da3c69b2025-08-20T03:11:22ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662025-02-011024210.3390/tropicalmed10020042Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Dandan Peng0Yajing Zhu1Lu Liu2Jianfeng Zhang3Peng Huang4Shaowen Bai5Xinyao Wang6Kun Yang7School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, ChinaKey Laboratory of National Health Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214000, ChinaKey Laboratory of National Health Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214000, ChinaKey Laboratory of National Health Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214000, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, ChinaKey Laboratory of National Health Commission on Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory on Parasite and Vector Control Technology, Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214000, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, ChinaSchistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in Africa, despite global efforts to eliminate the disease by 2030. This study estimates the burden, trends, and inequalities of schistosomiasis in Africa from 1990 to 2021, and projects future prevalence to inform the WHO’s elimination strategies. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021) were used to calculate annual average percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC), with spatial global autocorrelation analysis performed to examine temporal and spatial trends. Five modeling algorithms were constructed to predict disease burden in Africa from 2022 to 2041. The age-standardized prevalences rate (ASPR) of schistosomiasis in Africa decreased from 18,495.51 per 100,000 in 1990 to 9,461.76 per 100,000 in 2021. The total number of cases, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and mortality accounted for 84.25%, 87.92% and 87.28% of the global totals, respectively. ARIMA modeling predicts that by 2030, the ASPR will reach 3.99%. Despite progress, the burden remains significant, and intensified efforts are needed, particularly in high-burden regions like West Africa, to meet the WHO’s 2030 elimination targets.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/2/42Africaglobal burden of diseasemachine learning modelspatial autocorrelation analysisschistosomiasistrend analysis |
| spellingShingle | Dandan Peng Yajing Zhu Lu Liu Jianfeng Zhang Peng Huang Shaowen Bai Xinyao Wang Kun Yang Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease Africa global burden of disease machine learning model spatial autocorrelation analysis schistosomiasis trend analysis |
| title | Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Schistosomiasis Burden and Trend Analysis in Africa: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | schistosomiasis burden and trend analysis in africa insights from the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | Africa global burden of disease machine learning model spatial autocorrelation analysis schistosomiasis trend analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/10/2/42 |
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