A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis
With drilling operations extending to offshore or deep and complex formations, drilling risk is becoming more and more serious. Traditional methods cannot assure the safety of high-risk drilling operations. Therefore, establishing a quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk is becoming incre...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2018-08-01
|
| Series: | Kuwait Journal of Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/3636 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849727774423515136 |
|---|---|
| author | Zhichuan Guan Ya-Nan Sheng Ming Luo Yuqiang Xu Bo Zhang Qing Wang |
| author_facet | Zhichuan Guan Ya-Nan Sheng Ming Luo Yuqiang Xu Bo Zhang Qing Wang |
| author_sort | Zhichuan Guan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
With drilling operations extending to offshore or deep and complex formations, drilling risk is becoming more and more serious. Traditional methods cannot assure the safety of high-risk drilling operations. Therefore, establishing a quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk is becoming increasingly more urgent. In this paper, the credibility of formation pressure
and equivalent circulation density (ECD) of drilling fluid were first analyzed based on the Monte Carlo simulation method. Thereafter, the probability distributions of formation pressure and ECD were obtained. Then, based on the generalized stress and strength interference theory, the quantitative method for evaluating drilling risk was established. In this method, the risk
factor was defined as the generalized stress (ECD). The safety factor was defined as the generalized intensity (formation pressure). The safety barrier function was defined as the function of drilling risk. In two case studies, this method was used to predict drilling risk probabilities, and the prediction results were in favorable agreement with the actual drilling risk.
|
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-bc544b6da0e64ad3be06d05af720727f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2307-4108 2307-4116 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Kuwait Journal of Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-bc544b6da0e64ad3be06d05af720727f2025-08-20T03:09:45ZengElsevierKuwait Journal of Science2307-41082307-41162018-08-01453A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysisZhichuan Guan0Ya-Nan ShengMing LuoYuqiang XuBo ZhangQing WangChina University of Petroleum With drilling operations extending to offshore or deep and complex formations, drilling risk is becoming more and more serious. Traditional methods cannot assure the safety of high-risk drilling operations. Therefore, establishing a quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk is becoming increasingly more urgent. In this paper, the credibility of formation pressure and equivalent circulation density (ECD) of drilling fluid were first analyzed based on the Monte Carlo simulation method. Thereafter, the probability distributions of formation pressure and ECD were obtained. Then, based on the generalized stress and strength interference theory, the quantitative method for evaluating drilling risk was established. In this method, the risk factor was defined as the generalized stress (ECD). The safety factor was defined as the generalized intensity (formation pressure). The safety barrier function was defined as the function of drilling risk. In two case studies, this method was used to predict drilling risk probabilities, and the prediction results were in favorable agreement with the actual drilling risk. https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/3636Drilling risk evaluationFormation pressure with credibilityECD with credibilityMonte Carlo simulationGeneralized stress and strength interference theory |
| spellingShingle | Zhichuan Guan Ya-Nan Sheng Ming Luo Yuqiang Xu Bo Zhang Qing Wang A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis Kuwait Journal of Science Drilling risk evaluation Formation pressure with credibility ECD with credibility Monte Carlo simulation Generalized stress and strength interference theory |
| title | A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| title_full | A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| title_fullStr | A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| title_short | A new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| title_sort | new quantitative evaluation method for drilling risk based on uncertainty analysis |
| topic | Drilling risk evaluation Formation pressure with credibility ECD with credibility Monte Carlo simulation Generalized stress and strength interference theory |
| url | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/3636 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhichuanguan anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT yanansheng anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT mingluo anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT yuqiangxu anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT bozhang anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT qingwang anewquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT zhichuanguan newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT yanansheng newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT mingluo newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT yuqiangxu newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT bozhang newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis AT qingwang newquantitativeevaluationmethodfordrillingriskbasedonuncertaintyanalysis |